OpenAI confirms it has fired an employee accused of using non-public information obtained through work to trade insider information on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. This is the first time a tech giant has dismissed an employee for insider trading on prediction markets. The on-chain analysis platform Unusual Whales previously flagged 77 suspicious transactions related to the OpenAI incident.
(Background: Polymarket used as a cash machine! He made 80,000 USD in one day through 48 ultra-short-term predictions)
(Additional context: Data shows prediction markets had over 10 million USD in advance “spoilers” for Maduro’s downfall)
OpenAI confirms it has dismissed an employee for using confidential information obtained through work to place bets on prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. According to WIRED and TechCrunch, an OpenAI spokesperson stated that this action violated internal compliance policies, which explicitly prohibit employees from using non-public information for personal gain, including trading on prediction markets. OpenAI has not disclosed the employee’s identity.
Prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to bet on real-world event outcomes, such as when OpenAI will release new products or go to market. For internal employees with unreleased product timelines, these trades are “sure wins.”
Unusual Whales Flags 77 Suspicious Transactions Involving 60 Wallets
In fact, suspicious transactions related to OpenAI prediction markets have long attracted attention. The on-chain analysis platform Unusual Whales previously flagged 77 holdings across 60 wallets, with trading patterns strongly suggesting insiders with knowledge from OpenAI. These suspicious bets include contracts on Sora release dates and GPT-5 launch times.
One notable case involved a newly created wallet immediately betting that Sam Altman would return after his temporary dismissal in November 2023, making over $16,000 before ceasing activity.
Additionally, 13 inactive wallets opened within 40 hours before the public release of ChatGPT Browser, collectively betting $309,486 on the product’s release date contracts.
Crackdown on Insider Trading in Prediction Markets
Insider trading issues in prediction markets are now facing a wave of crackdowns. Previously, Kalshi suspended accounts of a California politician and a YouTuber due to suspicious activity and reported these to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Another well-known case involves the “Google whale,” an anonymous account that profited over $1 million by trading contracts related to Google events (including “highest search volume person of the year”), sparking widespread questions about tech employees using internal info to profit from prediction markets.
As prediction markets continue to grow, internal corporate information advantages are becoming a new gray area of legality. I envy this situation, and I believe you do too.
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