Market Analysis

In the article "Changing the Weekend of Finance," Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out that traditional finance in the US and Israel paused during the crackdown on Iran, with the crypto platform Hyperliquid becoming a trading hub, indicating that the pace of TradFi transformation onto the chain may accelerate. Over the weekend, Hyperliquid's trading volume exceeded $11.5 billion, demonstrating the practicality of on-chain finance during market closures and forcing institutional investors to adapt.

Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions continue, and risk aversion in Asian financial markets intensifies, leading to significant declines in major stock indices. Bitcoin experiences a slight dip but remains within a key range, with market focus on institutional funding and ETF inflows. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana pull back as risk appetite contracts. Uncertainty in the macro environment and volatility in the energy markets increase market pressure.

Research from the Bitcoin Policy Institute shows that among 36 AI models, 48.3% prefer Bitcoin, with no models choosing fiat currency. Bitcoin is favored for long-term value preservation, while stablecoins outperform Bitcoin in payment scenarios. The study also acknowledges methodological limitations, and AI preferences do not necessarily reflect actual adoption.

Coinphoton warns that the recent Pi Network price increase reflects buying fatigue rather than a true bullish reversal. Although PI's price surged 58.1% in four days, it faced resistance at $0.2. There may still be potential for a breakout in March, especially if Bitcoin exceeds $70,000.

Ray Dalio pointed out in an interview that gold is the only reliable hedge asset, warning that Bitcoin cannot become a long-term store of value due to four major flaws: privacy issues, lack of backing, technological risks, and its correlation with tech stocks. He analyzed the fiscal crisis facing the United States and called on investors to pay attention to historical cycles and financial balance.

_Oil shock and Fed uncertainty pressure Bitcoin, while ETF inflows fail to restore strong institutional demand._ Bitcoin swung sharply after U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran triggered a weekend risk-off move across

The author believes that the transformation of the financial industry towards blockchain is inevitable. Although the crypto market may initially only serve fringe users, recent geopolitical events have accelerated this shift. As decentralized exchanges become the core of the market, traditional financial institutions need to adapt quickly to on-chain finance or risk being eliminated.

In brief Roughly 3.4 million ETH is waiting to enter Ethereum’s validator set, creating one of the longest staking queues since the network transitioned to proof-of-stake. Anecdotal industry feedback suggests major corporates and exchanges are driving much of the demand as they seek yield on

Bitcoin price has recently rebounded to around $68,000, mainly driven by institutional capital inflows and short covering. Although trading sentiment remains cautious, market optimism for short-term fluctuations has increased, but high-leverage traders remain cautious, and overall confidence is gradually recovering.

The conflict between the US and Iran impacts the market, with TSMC's stock price plummeting to 1,895 yuan and the Taiwan Weighted Index falling by 94.9 points. Conversely, Bitcoin defies the trend and rebounds to $68,062, indicating investor risk aversion. Precious metal prices retreat, with gold dropping to a low of $5,119. Rising international oil prices influence inflation expectations, causing the probability of rate cuts to decrease to 2.6%. The US dollar index rises, and the market expects Bitcoin to break through $75,000 before confirming the end of the bull market.

MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced in an interview with Bloomberg that the Bitcoin bear market will end and predicted a long-term target price of $1 million. He believes that the structural growth in institutional demand has changed market dynamics, leading to increased stability in Bitcoin's price. However, critics cite historical data indicating that Bitcoin still exhibits high volatility and question Saylor's optimistic forecast.

On March 4th, the overall crypto market declined, with only the Layer2, SocialFi, and RWA sectors showing gains. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by 0.93% and 2.41%, respectively. Some projects like Mantle and Chiliz performed notably well. Other sectors generally declined, but River and Kite defied the trend and rose.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio questioned Bitcoin's hedging function in an interview, pointing out that gold has increased by over 80% while Bitcoin has fallen by 25%. He emphasized issues such as lack of privacy, quantum threats, and the absence of central bank backing for Bitcoin, recommending allocating 10-15% of assets to gold. Although Bitcoin demonstrates liquidity advantages in certain scenarios, Dalio believes gold remains the best store of value.

Key Insights: HYPE holds above the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $30.60, keeping the broader uptrend intact despite cooling momentum after rally. Open interest reset from $2.6 billion peak to $1.31 billion, signaling reduced leverage and potentially steadier price conditions ahead. A

Cardano founder Hoskinson criticizes the Ripple-supported "Clarity Act" for potentially classifying XRP as a security, sparking community controversy. He warns that most new tokens may face similar risks. Ripple CEO Garlinghouse argues that clear regulatory rules are more beneficial. XRP is currently under technical pressure, with the $1.30 support level being critical, and market trends should be closely monitored.

In brief 22 of 36 AI models chose Bitcoin as their top monetary preference in simulations. No tested model selected fiat currency as its first choice, the report says. Results varied by AI lab, with Anthropic models showing the strongest Bitcoin preference. Artificial intelligence models

Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at approximately $68,040, failing to continue its rebound. Trump mentioned that stablecoin legislation faces banking threats and called for advancing related bills. Mizuho Securities raised Circle's target stock price to $100, maintaining a neutral rating. U.S. stocks closed lower amid volatility due to the Middle East conflict, with investors concerned about geopolitical uncertainties.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio criticized Bitcoin in a podcast, calling it "digital gold," emphasizing that gold is the most mature form of currency, and highlighting three major risks of Bitcoin: lack of central bank backing, insufficient privacy protection, and the threat of quantum computing. He believes that gold's independent hedging characteristics have an advantage in geopolitical conflicts, while Bitcoin is more of a high-risk asset. Therefore, Dalio questions whether Bitcoin can truly serve as a safe haven during crises.

U.S. President Trump has shown a contradictory stance on military actions against Iran, making the market's assessment of conflict risk more difficult and leading to downside pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Technical analysts warn that if Bitcoin cannot break through the key resistance level, it may fall below $60,000, triggering a chain of liquidations and further declines. Market uncertainty has increased, but analysts believe this is just a process of clearing out weak investors, and the bull market is not over.