Prediction Market

Polymarket and Kalshi have rolled out restrictions on insider trading under regulatory pressure; however, Robin Hanson, the founder of the prediction market theory, believes that inside information is a core mechanism for market value and for quickly reflecting the truth. He used the metaphor of a poker table to warn about the risks of information asymmetry, and argued that if insiders were completely excluded, the market might just become a riddle dressed up as a financial product. The article says he views prediction markets as democracy rather than elite monopolization, and questions whether, if officials’ trading were banned, reporters’ leaks should also be restricted. This view comes from ABMedia’s chain-news report.

According to data from Polymarket prediction markets on April 27, the probability that the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act) will be completed into law in 2026 has fallen from a previous peak of 70% to 38-50%. As of April 27, there are only 28 days left until May 25, 2026, Memorial Day holiday in the United States.

According to academic paper published on SSRN on April 20, a research team from London Business School and Yale University analyzed Polymarket’s complete trading records and concluded that the platform’s pricing accuracy is mainly driven by 3.14% of informed traders, rather than the collective intelligence of all accounts. The study covers 98,906 events, 210,322 markets, involves 1.72 million accounts, and total trading volume reaches $13.76 billion.

A new study analyzes Polymarket’s trading records from 2023–2025 and shows that only 3.14% of experienced winners control more than 30% of the profits. Crowd participation alone is not enough to explain overall accuracy; at the same time, it tracks 1,950 highly suspicious insider trading accounts that, while not driving predictions, amplified price volatility. The case shows that large bets were placed and profits were made before the U.S. announced developments regarding Venezuela. The research questions “wisdom of crowds” and emphasizes the need for increasingly strict regulation.

Gate News message, April 27 — Polysights, a third-party prediction market data platform, analyzed over 20,000 Polymarket markets from the past six months and released a volatility ranking. The analysis revealed that cryptocurrency-related markets account for four of the top ten most volatile markets

According to an official announcement posted on X on April 27 by Polymarket developers, Polymarket will roll out a full platform infrastructure upgrade at 11:00 UTC on April 28, with trading paused for about 1 hour. This upgrade includes new generation trading contracts, a rebuilt order book, and the introduction of a new collateral token, pUSD. The platform’s existing collateral assets will be migrated from USDC.e to pUSD.

Gate News message, April 27 — According to Spencer Bogart, a partner at Blockchain Capital, Kalshi and Polymarket have nearly identical total trading volumes of approximately $12.2 billion each (Kalshi at $12.29 billion, Polymarket at $12.22 billion). However, when sports-related trades are

Gate News message, April 27 — Polymarket announced it will upgrade its platform on April 28, 2026, at approximately 19:00 UTC, with trading suspended for about one hour during the maintenance window. The upgrade includes a new-generation trading contract (CTF Exchange V2), a reconstructed order book

Gate News message, April 27 — A new academic paper analyzing all Polymarket transactions from 2023 through 2025 concludes that the platform's accuracy reflects "the wisdom of an informed minority, not the wisdom of the crowd." The working paper, revised April 25, was authored by Roberto Gómez-Cram,

Brazil has enacted a sweeping ban on prediction markets and betting platforms, according to local media and government filings. The two leading prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, were confirmed inaccessible to researchers based in the country, with the Banco Central do Brasil publishing a fo

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued New York on Friday to block state enforcement against CFTC-registered prediction market exchanges, escalating a federal-state legal battle over regulatory jurisdiction. The same day, New York Attorney General Letitia James joined 37 other state atto

Gate News message, April 26 — According to Polymarket prediction market data, there is an 88% probability that MegaETH will have a fully diluted valuation (FDV) exceeding $1 billion one day after launch. Earlier reports indicate the token's TGE is expected on April 30. Market participants are

Gate News message, April 26 — According to Polymarket, the prediction market on whether Trump will leave the presidency before 2027 currently stands at 17% probability. This follows recent remarks by President Trump at a White House press dinner, where he described the presidency as "a dangerous jo

Brazil has enacted a sweeping ban on prediction markets and betting platforms, according to local media and government filings. The Banco Central do Brasil issued a resolution prohibiting the two leading prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, from operating in the country due to non-compliance w

Gate News message, April 25 — A high-win-rate account (address: 0x9495425feeb0c250accb89275c97587011b19a27) with a 63% success rate purchased $310,000 worth of positions betting on the Timberwolves to defeat the Nuggets in Game 4 of the NBA Western Conference first round on Polymarket, according to

On Friday, New York Attorney General Letitia James joined a bipartisan coalition of 37 other attorneys general urging Massachusetts' top court to uphold a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, while the CFTC simultaneously filed a lawsuit against New York to block state enforcement against CFTC-reg

New York Attorney General Letitia James joined a bipartisan coalition of 37 other attorneys general and the District of Columbia on Friday in urging Massachusetts' top court to uphold a preliminary injunction against prediction market platform Kalshi, while the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commiss

CFTC4/24 filed a lawsuit against the State of New York in the U.S. Federal Court for the Southern District of New York, arguing that the event contracts are subject to federal exclusive jurisdiction, and seeking a permanent injunction to stop state law from interfering with CFTC-registered entities. The core issue is field preemption; if they win, Polymarket, Kalshi, and others in the U.S. will have compliance and market positioning dominated by the federal framework, and the influence of state law will be weakened.