Prediction Market

Gate News bot message, Polymarket is exploring a new funding round at approximately $20B valuation. The platform has experienced rapid growth in web traffic, reaching 38.4M monthly visits and ranking #2 among major platforms.

Gate News, as of March 12, according to relevant page information, Polymarket displayed on March 13 that the probability of predicting "Backpack token's FDV exceeding $300 million on the first day of listing" is 64%, while the probability of FDV being greater than $500 million is 30%. Previously, Backpack announced that it will conduct a TGE (Token Generation Event) on March 23.

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig announced the release of clear guidance targeting prediction markets to help trading platforms understand CFTC expectations for new contracts, ensure transparent rules, and prevent market manipulation and abusive conduct.

US CFTC Chair Mike Selig released prediction market guidance aimed at helping trading platforms understand regulatory expectations to ensure transparent rules for new contracts and prevent manipulation and abuse. Additionally, a proposed rule prenotice will be released to establish clear rules of conduct for new markets.

Utah HB243 bill classifies "proposition betting" as gambling and is expected to be signed by the governor, which will ban platforms like Kalshi from operating. Kalshi has filed a federal lawsuit, arguing that its contracts are derivatives. The CFTC chairman stated that the agency will defend its regulatory authority.

On March 12, PolyBeats detected two high-win-rate addresses betting on prediction markets that "the US and Iran will not cease fire before May," with a combined investment of $15,000 at a current price of 52.5¢. Meanwhile, Iran escalated attacks on Gulf shipping, causing a halt to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with analysts seeing no signs of de-escalation.

As prediction market trading volumes expand, major Wall Street brokerage firms are gradually entering the sector. However, legislators have expressed concerns about potential risks and plan to implement new regulatory measures. Institutional capital and young investors are driving market growth, but regulators are increasingly focused on the rapid expansion.

Forecast Market Platform data shows that three accounts have a total investment of $13,300, betting that Israel will launch a large-scale offensive against Lebanon before March 31, with a current probability of 68.5%. Although the Israeli military supports the operation, the United States remains cautious.

Kalshi has sued Iowa regulators, claiming that they may impose restrictions on its federally regulated sports-related event contracts, risking enforcement action against the platform. This legal battle underscores the tension between state and federal oversight of prediction markets.

U.S. Senator Adam Schiff has introduced the "Death Betting Act," which fully bans contracts related to terrorism, war, and death in prediction markets. The aim is to eliminate CFTC's regulatory flexibility and prevent national security risks. This move is a direct challenge to the recent relaxation of regulation by the CFTC and emphasizes that such bets will facilitate insider profits and are detrimental to public interest. This bill and similar actions are intended to respond to the ethical controversies sparked by prediction markets.

Prediction market Kalshi sues Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird and the Gaming Commission in federal court, claiming to face enforcement risks, asserting that federal law takes precedence over state law, and has engaged in legal disputes with regulators in multiple states.

Prediction market platform Kalshi has filed a lawsuit in Iowa, alleging that regulators may restrict the operation of its sports event contract products and asserting federal law takes precedence. The company did not receive a commitment not to take enforcement action after meeting with government officials and faces legal risks. Different states have varying regulatory attitudes toward such contracts, and court rulings are inconsistent, with ongoing disputes over their legal status.

On March 12, the decentralized prediction market Polymarket showed that an investor bet $10,000 on "Iranian leadership will not change before May," with the current price slightly down. U.S. intelligence analysts believe the Iranian government remains stable, despite the death of Khamenei, Iran is still strengthening domestic control.

According to Polymarket data, on March 12th, an address placed a $4,900 bet that "Trump will announce the cessation of military operations against Iran before May." This bet is based on statements from Trump and the U.S. government, with the end of the war being decided by them. Oil prices surged due to Iran's attack on supply chains. The trader's behavior indicates that they are not betting on the actual occurrence of the event.

Reports indicate that multiple Wall Street brokerages plan to offer trading channels for hedge funds and institutional investors to predict market movements, demonstrating increased institutional interest in markets traditionally dominated by retail investors. Institutions aim to use prediction markets as hedging tools and data sources, but currently face challenges such as liquidity shortages and regulatory risks. As more financial institutions participate, prediction markets have the potential to become a significant source of information in the financial industry.

Bitcoin has recently stabilized around $70,200, and options market data indicates approximately a 35% chance of breaking above $80,000 before June. The market is hedging against downside risks, with a structural shift showing decreased defensive positioning and increased rebound bets. Analysis suggests that although short-term inflation data meets expectations, potential future increases could add uncertainty. Bitcoin's role is shifting from a high-risk asset to a hybrid asset, reflecting a change in investor perception.

Summary: A beginner's guide to prediction markets for shrimp farming, covering environment setup, analysis, monitoring, and pitfalls encountered. Author: Changan I Biteye Content Team Last year, I kept an eye on Polymarket every day. When I saw unusual activity, I would manually follow the trades. Once, I noticed a new wallet making a large purchase. I checked the news, analyzed the logic, and prepared to place an order — it took about twenty minutes. By the time I returned to the trading page, the price had already skyrocketed. That feeling of “seeing the opportunity but not making the profit” made me realize: in prediction markets of 2026, the gap isn’t in information but in tools. The cognitive barrier to cross-market trading is extremely high. Retail investors find it difficult to analyze and act quickly amid rapidly changing news. This article will guide you from installation to practical application, teaching you how to build your own Polymarket automated trading system. 1. Key points and underlying configuration before deployment Before you start, you need to complete Ope

Major US brokers are providing hedge fund clients with access to the prediction market platform Kalshi. Clear Street expects to complete its first trade settlement by the end of March, and Marex Group also plans to follow suit. Financial institutions have a strong demand for prediction markets, and Kalshi's CEO pointed out that these markets are becoming an important part of the financial ecosystem.

As prediction markets develop, several major US prime brokers are pushing funds into the space, with Clear Street and Marex Group planning to enable clients to participate in Kalshi's event trading. Institutional demand for prediction markets is increasing, but regulatory challenges remain. Once the regulatory framework is in place, prediction markets are expected to become a new growth area on Wall Street.

Gate News Announcement, March 12 — Backpack has confirmed that the TGE will take place around March 23. Real-time betting data from a prediction platform shows that the probability of Backpack's TGE first-day FDV exceeding $300 million is about 68%, and the probability of exceeding $500 million is 33%. Backpack CEO Armani Ferrante previously stated during an official Twitch live stream that the token TGE date is approximately March 23.