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The biggest uncertainty in the market now is not war or recession, but the AI bubble~
This is also my biggest concern~ Especially the chart of Nvidia...
It may offend some people to say this, but the data is right here: Nvidia's market value once exceeded 5 trillion dollars, and the overall valuation multiple of AI concept stocks has already surpassed the peak of the 2000 Nasdaq bubble. That burst, Nasdaq fell 78%, and it took 15 years to recover to the original point~
The essence of a bubble is not technical falsehood, but pricing that overestimates the future by many years. The internet is n

Regarding Bitcoin, there are two things that are now basically certain—
First: The voices claiming that Bitcoin has reached an "ultimate top and will plunge into an abyss" based on wave theory have already been answered by the market trend since November. Bitcoin will not end here; conservatively, we will see new highs within 2-3 years. There’s no doubt about this direction—
Second: It’s also certain that Bitcoin is currently in a bear market. It watches other assets take turns rallying while it remains still, even falling along with the market without rising. But this isn’t because it’s incap

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates in April, with the move imminent—markets haven't fully priced this in yet, and that's where the opportunity lies~
Japanese government bond yields just hit their highest since 1999, the yen remains under pressure around 160, and domestic inflation continues to run above target. The BOJ has long moved beyond the question of whether to raise rates; now it's about how to raise them~
The real trading advantage lies in the time gap: markets often start pricing in negative news only two to three weeks before the event. With a window still open before the April

War is expensive, and Trump knows this better than anyone~
Someone who has been in the business world for decades wouldn't only consider expenses without thinking about returns.
The Iran war cost hundreds of billions in military spending, and the next natural question is: how to recover it?
The answer has always been simple in history: reconstruction contracts, energy interests, weapons orders, post-war negotiation leverage.
After the Iraq war, American oil companies entered the market, and after the Afghanistan conflict, arms manufacturers' stock prices doubled—wars are always busines

Houthi forces threaten: Considering closing the Strait of Mandeb~
12% of global trade passes through here. Plus, 20% of the world's oil from the Strait of Hormuz, now the two most critical maritime chokepoints in the world, both under threat of being cut off~
If the Strait of Mandeb is closed, the Suez Canal route will be directly cut off—cargo ships between Europe and Asia will have to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, adding two weeks to shipping time and doubling transportation costs. This is not just about rising freight rates; it’s a global supply chain re-pricing event~
Let’s walk thr

UBS recently issued a notice regarding its Euroinvest real estate fund (valued at approximately $469 million), announcing a suspension of redemption requests for up to 36 months (three years).
Source: Official notice issued by UBS Real Estate GmbH to investors on March 26, 2026.
This sentence also appeared in June 2007, when it was Bessesen who said it. Fourteen months later, Lehman collapsed, and the global financial crisis erupted~
"Insufficient liquidity" in plain language means only one thing: assets can't be sold, or selling them would result in losses so severe they are unbearable~

In 2026, the Year of the Fire Horse, the character truly lives up to its meaning—fire🔥
The Bing represents heavenly fire, Wu is earthly fire, and together they form the most intense combination in the Five Elements.
Ancient people said, "In the Year of Bing Wu, weapons rise," and looking at it now, Venezuela, Iran, and the next Cuba—the U.S. war list is longer than a supermarket shopping cart~
The most remarkable thing is the renaming of the Ministry of National Defense to the "Department of War"—this isn't just a name change; it's a clear signal that the game rules have changed.
Defe

"Epic Rage Operation" has been underway, with the US military striking over 10,000 Iranian military targets～
But there’s another airstrike happening silently—global capital markets, where the number of affected stocks has long exceeded 10,000～
Missiles on the battlefield have target coordinates; market damage is indiscriminate: AI stocks, shipping stocks, emerging market ETFs, Middle East-related assets. After a round of risk re-pricing, there’s no precision guidance—only broad clearance～
The most ironic part is: wars target geographic locations, while markets target valuation logic. The forme

Rubio recently said in an interview: "Cuban people can succeed all over the world, but not in Cuba itself—"
This statement seems to criticize Cuba on the surface, but in reality, it’s a universal key—swap out the country name and it still holds true. The problem has never been the people; it’s the system. People are like water, systems are like pipes; if the pipes are blocked, no matter how good the water is, it can’t flow out.
So where are the most talented people gathered in the world? Where the system is most efficient. Where capital is most willing to go? Where rules are most predictab

Even Fox News can't hold back anymore~
Trump's approval rating is 41%, opposition 59%. Inflation 28%, economy 34%, Iran policy 36%—all these numbers from their own media are in full crisis~
The scoreboard for "Making America Great Again": oil prices haven't dropped, prices haven't come down, the war isn't over, and public support hasn't returned. This isn't an attack from opponents; it's a bill from their own side~
What does Fox releasing these numbers indicate?
It shows that even those within the protective moat are voting with their feet. Historically, whenever the core media supporting the

Brian Armstrong has once again killed the "CLARITY Act"—
Tens of trillions of institutional funds are waiting on the sidelines, and the divergence in stablecoin yields remains unresolved. Brian's veto means the whole industry has to wait with him—
We’ve spent years arguing with the SEC, and in the end, it’s not the regulators blocking us—it's the exchange with the highest market value in the industry—
The logic is simple: clear regulations allow competitors to enter compliantly; unclear regulations keep Coinbase’s moat intact.
This isn’t defending the industry; it’s using the industry as a moa

Has anyone seriously considered this scenario: Trump secretly reaching an agreement with Iran to jointly establish a "toll booth" in the Strait of Hormuz~
Sounds absurd? But Trump's logic has always been solely about interests — he's a developer, and what he sees is: a waterway through which 20% of global oil passes, with hundreds of ships daily, and no one collecting tolls. That's a huge missed business opportunity~
And Iran? Easing sanctions, taking a dignified step down, and casually collecting some toll fees—why not?~
If this scenario were true: oil prices wouldn't fall but rise (monopoly

Shell CEO just issued a warning: Europe may run out of oil next month~
Running out of oil is no joke — he oversees one of the world's largest oil and gas companies, and when he says "tight," it’s truly tight, not just small talk~
Think back: every energy crisis has been sparked by a single match igniting inflation, exchange rates, and commodities. Europe’s energy structure still hasn't filled the gaps from 2022, and if shortages occur this time, spot LNG prices, the euro, and German industrial stocks are likely to plunge together~
Oil prices are not just about gas stations; they are a ma