The biggest uncertainty in the market now is not war or recession, but the AI bubble~

This is also my biggest concern~ Especially the chart of Nvidia...
It may offend some people to say this, but the data is right here: Nvidia's market value once exceeded 5 trillion dollars, and the overall valuation multiple of AI concept stocks has already surpassed the peak of the 2000 Nasdaq bubble. That burst, Nasdaq fell 78%, and it took 15 years to recover to the original point~
The essence of a bubble is not technical falsehood, but pricing that overestimates the future by many years. The internet is not fake, but the stock prices of internet companies in 2000 were fake.
AI is not fake either—the problem is, the current prices are pricing in a world in 2035~
From a trader’s perspective, this wave of AI frenzy has already followed a very standard Elliott Wave five-wave expansion:
• Current situation: Nvidia’s market cap exceeds 5 trillion, the Nasdaq hits 26,000 points, and global AI infrastructure investments surpass 1 trillion USD.
• Hidden danger: According to the latest financial reports, although giants are still pouring money into graphics cards, 95% of corporate AI projects have yet to see a penny of return. This is the ultimate variant of the Dow Theory’s “volume-price divergence”—a serious disconnect between input and output.
Why is this collapse more terrifying?
Because AI has already become deeply linked with global debt. Morgan Stanley’s data shows that debt related to data centers has surged past the trillion-dollar mark. If the monetization logic of AI proves false, the resonance of debt collapse + bubble burst will be the “most serious crisis of a lifetime,” as Rogers said.
My judgment:
The future of AI is the stars and the sea, but the current valuation is a “mirage.” Gann’s theory tells us that everything has a cycle. When everyone is talking about AI replacing humans, the market might be preparing for a “clearing out” to replace those unrealistic illusions.
As I said before: after the dog days, there will be a cold spell. If you are still fully invested in AI concept stocks hoping for that last 5% gain, you might already be the snowflake shouting “it’s not the top yet” just before the avalanche.
Bubbles never need a “AI failure” news to trigger a collapse. Just one quarter of disappointing earnings, a liquidity tightening, or an unexpected black swan feather~
The last person to enter the market never knows they are the last~
#AI泡沫 # Nvidia #科技股 # Nasdaq #MacroeconomicRisk