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Based on estimates from 39 investment banks, the expected US unemployment rate for August shows divergence, but overall it leans towards a slight rise. The previous value was 4.2%, and the statistics show: 1 estimate at 4.1% (Scotiabank), 17 estimates at 4.2% (including Société Générale, Barclays, etc.), 20 estimates at 4.3% (including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, etc.), and 1 estimate at 4.4% (Daiwa Capital). The median is 4.3%, and the average is approximately 4.25%. Most institutions (over 50%) lean towards 4.3%, reflecting a consensus that the labor market is moderately slowing down. If the actual published value aligns with the median expectation, it will confirm weak job growth (with expected new jobs only 73k-75k), possibly due to weakened demand in manufacturing and services, as well as the impact of downward revisions in previous data.
The impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is significant. This data is a key indicator before the Fed's September meeting. If the unemployment rate rises to 4.3% or higher, it will reinforce signals of a cooling labor market, triggering the "Sahm Rule" alert (when the unemployment rate rises 0.5% from the 12-month low), prompting the Fed to take more aggressive rate cuts. The current federal funds rate is 5.25%-5.5%, and the market has priced in nearly a 100% probability of a rate cut in September. However, if the data is weak, the probability of a 50bp rate cut may increase from the current 30% to over 50%. Fed Chairman Powell's recent remarks have hinted at data dependence; if the unemployment rate exceeds expectations, it will accelerate a shift towards easing, prioritizing recession prevention over inflation control, which could potentially influence the path of subsequent meetings, aiming to lower the target to 4.5%-4.75% by the end of the year.
This data will affect the cryptocurrency positively or bias towards a bullish sentiment. The crypto market is highly sensitive to macro liquidity; an increase in the unemployment rate strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts, while a weaker dollar and a rise in risk appetite are beneficial for assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve's easing cycle (such as 2020-2022) often boosts the total market value of cryptocurrencies by more than 2 times. If the data is weaker than expected, it may lead to short-term volatility, but in the medium to long term, it is beneficial: lowering borrowing costs and stimulating investment inflows into areas like DeFi and NFTs. Conversely, if the data is unexpectedly strong (such as remaining flat at 4.2%), cryptocurrencies may face pressure and adjust down by 5%-10%.
In summary: With a 4.3% expectation, cryptocurrencies may rebound, with BTC targeting a rise to $120,000, and $ETH possibly breaking through 460-4700.
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The impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is significant. This data is a key indicator before the Fed's September meeting. If the unemployment rate rises to 4.3% or higher, it will reinforce signals of a cooling labor market, triggering the "Sahm Rule" alert (when the unemployment rate rises 0.5% from the 12-month low), prompting the Fed to take more aggressive rate cuts. The current federal funds rate is 5.25%-5.5%, and the market has priced in nearly a 100% probability of a rate cut in September. However, if the data is weak, the probability of a 50bp rate cut may increase from the current 30% to over 50%. Fed Chairman Powell's recent remarks have hinted at data dependence; if the unemployment rate exceeds expectations, it will accelerate a shift towards easing, prioritizing recession prevention over inflation control, which could potentially influence the path of subsequent meetings, aiming to lower the target to 4.5%-4.75% by the end of the year.
This data will affect the cryptocurrency positively or bias towards a bullish sentiment. The crypto market is highly sensitive to macro liquidity; an increase in the unemployment rate strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts, while a weaker dollar and a rise in risk appetite are beneficial for assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve's easing cycle (such as 2020-2022) often boosts the total market value of cryptocurrencies by more than 2 times. If the data is weaker than expected, it may lead to short-term volatility, but in the medium to long term, it is beneficial: lowering borrowing costs and stimulating investment inflows into areas like DeFi and NFTs. Conversely, if the data is unexpectedly strong (such as remaining flat at 4.2%), cryptocurrencies may face pressure and adjust down by 5%-10%.
In summary: With a 4.3% expectation, cryptocurrencies may rebound, with BTC targeting a rise to $120,000, and $ETH possibly breaking through 460-4700.
Follow me for the first-time analysis of daily market data.
Get the first information and stay one step ahead.
#非农就业数据来袭
