Why did the non-farm payroll report's favourable information cause Bitcoin to fall?

On September 5, 2025 (yesterday), the U.S. Federal Reserve released the non-farm payroll report for August, which showed that job growth was far below expectations, with only 22,000 jobs added (expected was 75,000), and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. This report reinforced expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September (the market is pricing in a nearly 100% probability for a 25 basis point cut and about a 41% probability for a 50 basis point cut), but it also raised concerns in the market about an economic recession, leading to a sell-off of risk assets. As a result, the price of Bitcoin fell by about 2%, fluctuating narrowly from around $111,300 before the report to the range of $110,200 to $110,600.
Main reason:
Economic recession fears dominate market sentiment: Weaker-than-expected employment data is seen as a signal of cooling in the U.S. labor market, leading investors to worry that this could indicate a broader economic slowdown or recession. This prompts funds to shift from high-risk assets like Bitcoin to safer assets, such as U.S. Treasury bonds. Although expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, fears of recession in the short term are overshadowing liquidity favourable information, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
Impact of Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: Bitcoin is highly correlated with the Nasdaq Index (correlation of about 72%). The market originally expected weak data to drive the Federal Reserve to be more aggressive in cutting interest rates (for example, a 50BP cut), which typically provides Favourable Information for cryptocurrencies. However, after the actual announcement, although the probability of a rate cut increased, the crypto market reversed, erasing early gains and turning to a fall. If the data is too weak, it may amplify concerns about economic health rather than simply providing Favourable Information for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Institutions and whales: Before and after the report was released, institutional investors and Bitcoin whales showed signs of selling, with about 100,000 $BTC being sold off, and corporate buying activity weakened. This intensified downward price pressure. At the same time, overall liquidity in the crypto market decreased, and altcoins also followed the decline.
Macroeconomic Background and Seasonal Factors: September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin (with a historical average return rate in negative values), compounded by global trade tensions (such as US-China tariffs and uncertainties related to Trump) and persistent inflation, leading to a decrease in market risk appetite. Although Bitcoin remained stable around $111,000 before the report, it failed to break through the resistance zone of $112,000-$117,000, further amplifying the downside risk.
Overall, this fall is driven by short-term sentiment and a sell-the-fact reaction, rather than a fundamental collapse. If the Federal Reserve confirms a rate cut at the meeting on September 17, Bitcoin may rebound to above $114,000-$117,000; conversely, if data continues to be weak, prices may test the support at $107,000-$98,800. Next week's CPI inflation data may provide a basic tone for the Federal Reserve.
#比特币市场动态