On March 2, news broke that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died in an airstrike incident, and prediction markets related to his death are facing strong criticism from U.S. political circles. Some U.S. senators are calling on regulators to restrict prediction market contracts settled on personal death, quickly bringing crypto prediction platforms and related financial products into the spotlight.
Data shows that on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, contracts related to the timing of the Iran airstrike have traded over $529 million. Meanwhile, on the prediction platform Kalshi, trading volume for contracts on whether Khamenei will remain as the Supreme Leader has exceeded $50 million, with about $20 million traded just on Saturday alone. Following confirmation of the airstrike, these contracts rapidly moved toward settlement.
According to documents submitted by Kalshi to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), all positions are settled based on the last transaction price before Khamenei’s death. The platform then paused trading and closed the contracts. However, there are discrepancies between the settlement rules described on the market page and the official documents, raising user concerns. The market remained active for hours between the airstrike and the death confirmation, becoming a point of controversy.
Kalshi later issued a statement acknowledging ambiguities in some rules and announced that all market fees would be refunded. Additionally, any positions opened after Khamenei’s death will be fully refunded.
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps found that six newly created accounts profited about $1 million by accurately predicting the timing of the Iran attack on February 28. These accounts almost exclusively bet on the attack date, with some trades completed hours before the airstrike began. Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, noted that war and conflict-related events often attract informed traders to bet early, and anonymous trading environments may amplify this risk.
U.S. Senator Adam Schiff, along with several Democratic colleagues, has jointly written to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, demanding that regulators ban prediction market contracts related to personal death and requiring a response by March 9. Industry organization Coalition for Prediction Markets also publicly stated that contracts involving death events should not appear in U.S. markets.
Analysts believe that as the intersection of war, politics, and crypto prediction markets continues to expand, regulators may strengthen oversight of these platforms in the future. The legality and ethical boundaries of prediction market contracts are expected to become new issues in financial regulation.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Bitcoin Price Predictions Flip Bullish, But Ethereum Is Still Stuck
Predictors have turned bullish on Bitcoin's near-term price, suggesting a rise to $84,000 before a potential drop. However, analysts remain divided on sustainability, while sentiment for Ethereum is bearish, with expectations of a decline to $1,500.
Decrypt2h ago
Polymarket pre-market prediction: WBC Australia will win. Taiwanese baseball fans learned a lesson in prediction markets.
The Chinese Taipei team lost 0:3 to Australia in their first game of the 2026 World Baseball Classic, disappointing fans. The prediction market Polymarket shows Australia's win probability at 64%. However, traditional Taiwanese betting odds suggest that the Chinese Taipei team has a 70% chance of winning, indicating the influence of supporter bias. Analysis points out that Polymarket's predictions are more accurate, reflecting the benefits of diverse participants and data analysis, and highlighting the future potential of prediction markets.
動區BlockTempo7h ago
Bloomberg: Prediction market track rapidly emerging, Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion form a three-way competition
PANews March 5 News, according to Bloomberg, prediction markets have experienced rapid growth over the past year, attracting widespread attention including from traditional financial institutions. The main platforms in the industry currently include Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion, which are seen as the primary competitors in the market landscape.
The report points out that as the regulatory environment gradually becomes clearer and trading demand around macro events and hot topics continues to grow, prediction markets are becoming an important new frontier at the intersection of the crypto industry and traditional finance.
GateNews8h ago
Senator Chris Murphy questions insider trading related to Iran airstrike predictions in the prediction market, with million-dollar bets sparking controversy over "White House corruption"
U.S. Senator Chris Murphy expressed concern over prediction market trading ahead of military actions against Iran, accusing large bets of potentially involving insider information and leading to corruption that profits from war. He mentioned that certain accounts placed precise bets before the airstrikes and reaped huge profits, calling for legislation to restrict such transactions to protect national security. This has sparked widespread discussion in U.S. politics about war powers and transparency.
GateNews13h ago
Polymarket nuclear explosion contract attracts $650,000 in trading! Sparks ethical and insider controversy, official removal in emergency.
Polymarket has sparked public controversy for listing nuclear explosion prediction contracts, being accused of exploiting human survival crises for speculation. The platform removed the contracts on March 4 and is facing regulatory pressure. Analysts point out that the platform may become a channel for insider trading, threatening the reputation of prediction markets. U.S. regulatory agencies plan to further regulate prediction markets, emphasizing the need to strike a balance between ethics and legality.
CryptoCity13h ago
Kalshi refuses $54 million payout, insider trading controversy heats up in prediction markets
The prediction market platform Kalshi refused to pay users' expected $54 million payout, citing that its contract "exit" definition does not include assassination scenarios. The incident has sparked insider trading allegations against competitor Polymarket. U.S. senators plan to introduce legislation to ban prediction contracts related to government actions, arguing that such markets distort public judgment.
MarketWhisper15h ago
