Odaily Planet Daily reports that Stanford Graduate School of Business professor and a16z & Meta advisor Andy Hall posted on X platform stating that his team has developed a new dataset focused on political prediction markets, liquidity, and settlement rules. The research found that the vast majority of political contracts in prediction markets lack activity, with only 1.3% of contracts having sufficient liquidity. Kalshi and Polymarket rarely list contracts with identical rules, leading to further fragmentation of liquidity.
Andy Hall proposed four improvement suggestions: first, list contracts on core issues and collaborate with independent organizations to define markets of social concern; second, pay market makers to inject initial liquidity into political markets; third, introduce AI agents to trade in areas where humans do not participate, generating price references needed by society; fourth, establish unified definitions and settlement rules across platforms. Andy Hall believes these measures will attract traders seeking to hedge political risks and turn prediction markets into the truth machines society needs.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
New Wallet Places $100K Bet on U.S.-Iran Strike in March
Gate News bot message, a newly created wallet has placed a $100K bet on a potential U.S. strike against Iran in March. The timing and amount of the wager have raised questions about whether this represents an informed position or speculative gambling.
GateNewsBot2h ago
The Clarity Act – a Potential ETH Super-Cycle Trigger As Prediction Markets Signal 90% Approval Odds
The crypto market is experiencing some serious sentiment shifts as legislators gain traction. After the Genius Act resulted in significant stablecoin inflows and boosted liquidity into 2025, focus has now shifted to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. According to Polymarket, there’s a 90%
BlockChainReporter4h ago
The probability that the court orders Trump to refund tariffs on Kalshi quickly rises to 66%
BlockBeats News, February 20 — According to prediction platform Kalshi, the market currently estimates a 66% probability that a court will order Trump to refund tariffs before July 2026, a significant increase from around 30% previously.
GateNewsBot11h ago
Federal Reserve Paper Highlights Kalshi as Emerging Macro Forecast Tool
The paper "Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets" highlights the effectiveness of prediction markets in forecasting macroeconomic indicators like inflation and GDP, showing they can outperform traditional methods. It acknowledges regulatory scrutiny while affirming their growing relevance in economics and finance.
ICOHOIDER15h ago
Polymarket Traders Place Huge Bets on Growing Odds of Alien Disclosure By U.S. Before 2027
Polymarket traders are increasingly optimistic about U.S. confirmation of extraterrestrial life, with probability rising from 11% to 24%. This speculation, driven by potential declassification orders from Trump, has generated $3.8M in trading volume, reflecting public interest and shifting expectations on government transparency.
BlockChainReporter18h ago
"Prediction Market ETF" Competition Begins! Roundhill, Bitwise, GraniteShares Lead the Charge
ETF issuer Bitwise and GraniteShares announced the launch of prediction market ETFs targeting the U.S. election results. This trend promotes the integration of finance and prediction markets and may attract institutional investors. The move reflects the merging of cryptocurrencies and traditional finance and could inject liquidity into prediction markets, but regulatory challenges still remain. If approved, it will become a new investment option, paving the way for the mainstream adoption of prediction markets.
区块客20h ago
