U.S.-Iran Conflict » Analysts Say Bitcoin Bottoming Out, Market Focuses on Oil and U.S. Inflation Changes

Oil prices rise amid US-Iran conflict, sparking concerns of inflation returning to 5%. However, analysts suggest that when priced in gold, Bitcoin’s bottom may appear as early as this month; technical support has already been seen, and a rebound toward $74,000 could be possible.

As the US conducts airstrikes on Iran, analysts say Bitcoin may be nearing its bottom?

During the joint US-Iran airstrikes on Iran, and following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Rony Szuster, Research Director at Brazil’s largest cryptocurrency exchange Mercado Bitcoin, pointed out that when valued in gold, Bitcoin ($BTC) may be approaching its market bottom, potentially as soon as next month.

Historically, Bitcoin’s bear markets tend to last 12 to 13 months. When priced in USD, the downturn could extend until the end of 2026.

But when valued in gold, the timeline shifts. Szuster notes that the Bitcoin-to-gold price peaked in January 2025. If the previous 12 to 13-month cycle is used, Bitcoin might bottom around February this year and start rebounding in March.

Global uncertainties, escalating geopolitical tensions, and capital shifting into gold have all contributed to Bitcoin’s relative weakness compared to gold. Meanwhile, gold prices temporarily surged over 2%, reaching a high of $5,394 per ounce.

Image source: TradingView

Iran conflict impacts Strait of Hormuz, raising oil and inflation concerns

Due to the Iran conflict, oil prices surged significantly, with Brent crude rising about 8% to 10%, approaching $80 per barrel; US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased approximately 7% to 8%.

Iran announced it would block the Strait of Hormuz. Although the strait is international waters, it has become a bottleneck for oil transportation, prompting rapid analysis of potential chain reactions on US inflation.

Pratik Kala, Research Director at crypto investment firm Apollo Crypto, told Decrypt that if oil prices remain high, the risk of rising inflation data increases, which is unfavorable for risk assets and Bitcoin.

However, Kala also pointed out that OPEC countries hold large oil reserves that can fill supply gaps; additionally, US President Donald Trump would do his best to keep oil prices low, knowing this greatly influences American public sentiment.

US inflation data may return to 5%

Financial analysis media The Kobeissi Letter, citing JPMorgan research, states that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) could surge to 5%. The last time US inflation hit 5% was in March 2023, when the Federal Reserve was actively raising interest rates.

Furthermore, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that in January, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.5% month-over-month, significantly higher than the market expectation of 0.3%.

Bitcoin technical signals show support

As Middle Eastern turmoil begins to calm over the weekend, Bitcoin, which once dropped near $63,000, is now consolidating around $67,000.

According to Cointelegraph, noted crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) for Bitcoin is at $67,627. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures gap left over the weekend is at $65,880. Historically, markets tend to fill CME gaps.

CME gaps have long been an important indicator for traders, with the common expectation that Bitcoin will eventually fill these gaps, returning to pre-gap levels. For example, a bullish gap (opening price above previous close) may have its lower edge seen as potential support; conversely, a bearish gap (opening below previous close) may have its upper edge as resistance. Although filling gaps is often expected, not all CME gaps are filled, and traders’ expectations may sometimes be disappointed based on historical data.

Another trader, BitBull, analyzing the three-day trend, said that Bitcoin looks good in the short term.

He noted that after breaking support zones, Bitcoin has shifted resistance into support, and there’s a chance for a rebound between $73,000 and $74,000.

Image source: BitBull

This content is compiled by Crypto Agent from various sources, reviewed and edited by Crypto City. It is still in training, so there may be logical biases or inaccuracies. The content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.