Bitcoin Traders Expect More Pain Ahead After BTC Falls 50% From Peak

In brief

• Bitcoin fell below the $63,000 mark overnight, over 50% from last October’s all-time high mark.
• Prediction markets now favor a drop to $55,000 before any recovery to $84,000.
• Trump’s standoff with the Supreme Court over trade tariffs is fueling volatility, pushing investors toward gold.

Bitcoin sentiment has taken a dive on prediction markets as the price of the asset dipped below $63,000 earlier Tuesday, briefly putting it more than 50% below its all-time high. Users on Myriad, a prediction market platform owned by Decrypt parent company Dastan, now predict there’s a roughly 71% chance that Bitcoin dips to $55,000 before it manages to climb back to $84,000. The pessimistic view has gained nearly 12% in the past day. At the time of writing, Bitcoin had ticked up slightly to $63,829 after having lost 3% in the past 24 hours, according to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko. It fell as low as $62,802 overnight, marking the lowest price registered on the aggregator since October 2024. 

Bitcoin has lost 28% over the last month and is currently more than 49% lower than the all-time high price of $126,080 that it reached in early October. More broadly, markets are still processing a new 10% global tariff on all good imported to the U.S. The new trade policy took effect early Tuesday morning. The order is in direct opposition to a Supreme Court ruling Friday that found his international trade policies unlawful. President Donald Trump has been lambasting the ruling on Truth Social. Over the weekend he said can do “absolutely ‘terrible’ things to foreign countries, especially those countries that have been RIPPING US OFF for many decades.” That will likely create lots of volatility in crypto markets, said Jimmy Xue, COO and co-founder at crypto infrastructure firm Axis.

“The main thing to watch out for this week is the policy whiplash between the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling against emergency tariff authorities and the administration’s immediate pivot to Section 122 duties, which has created a high-stakes legal and economic standoff,” he said in a note shared with Decrypt. Xue added that gold has cemented its role as a hedge against volatility and thrived as investors shift in to risk-off mode. At the time of writing, gold has wavered slightly, dropping 1% to $5,154 per ounce in the past day. But it’s still 2.39% higher than it was this time last month and has gained a staggering 54% in the past six months, according to Goldprice. “Bitcoin remains tethered to the ‘risk-on’ liquidity cycle, causing it to trade more like a high-growth tech stock that investors trim during periods of geopolitical or fiscal panic,” he said.