The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 92.1%

三菱日联分析师：伊朗战争引发油价上涨或促部分央行加息，澳元受益明显

3月14日，三菱日联分析师指出，虽然油价上涨可能促使央行加息，但在经济疲弱情况下，加息对货币通常不利。澳元因市场预期美国加息和能源价格上涨，成为表现最佳的G10货币之一。

美银分析师：标普500指数若跌至6600点或引发白宫、美联储政策反应

Gate News 消息，3月13日，美国银行分析师迈克尔·哈特内特警告称，如果标普500指数（美国股市基准指数）进一步下跌至6600点左右（仅比近期水平低1%），可能会引发白宫或美联储的政策反应。

巴克莱调整美联储降息预测：2026年9月和2027年3月各降息25个基点

Gate News 消息，3月13日，巴克莱发布最新预测，预计美联储将于2026年9月和2027年3月各降息25个基点。此前，巴克莱的预测为2026年6月和9月降息，此次调整意味着降息时点整体后移。

BTC 15分钟下跌1.06%：油价冲击与杠杆强平共振引发抛售压力

2026-03-13 14:30 至 14:45（UTC），BTC在15分钟内收益率录得-1.06%，K线价格区间为72933.4至73896.0 USDT，振幅达1.31%。短时间市场波动明显加剧，交易活跃度与关注度同步走高。 本次异动的主要驱动力是全球油价因美以对伊朗军事行动急飙至100美元上方，触发通胀预期升温和美联储降息可能性的下降，导致全球风险偏好大幅回撤。比特币作为流动性最强的风险

Bank of America: Oil price shock may push up the Fed's inflation forecast, with Powell emphasizing a wait-and-see stance

Gate News reported that on March 13, Bank of America stated that the Federal Reserve will have to address the supply shock from soaring oil prices. In the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released ahead of the March Federal Reserve meeting, overall and core inflation forecasts are likely to be revised upward. The Bank of America report points out that if long-term growth expectations are also revised upward, the median dot plot for long-term interest rates could move slightly higher. In this case, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may acknowledge stagflation risks while emphasizing a wait-and-see approach.

The United States announced a January core PCE year-over-year rate of 3.1%, meeting expectations but still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

The US January Core PCE inflation rate came in at 3.1% year-over-year, remaining elevated and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer, which could create macroeconomic pressure on the crypto market. Both services and goods prices increased, indicating that sticky inflation concerns remain unresolved. Analysts point out that this increase may be influenced by seasonal factors, but the market should remain vigilant against short-term volatility risks.