Wintermute: BTC finds support at the 200-week moving average; a clear macro environment is needed to resume upward movement

PANews February 17 News, according to Wintermute research report, as spot trading volume continues to shrink, leverage has become the main driver of short-term volatility. Without “structural buying” (long-term funds capable of absorbing selling pressure) to smooth out fluctuations, the market will experience sharp surges and drops on both the bullish and bearish sides. From a technical perspective, BTC has found support near its 200-week moving average, which historically is often the bottom of a bear market.

Wintermute believes that until clear macro signals re-emerge, every rebound will be seen as a risk-off opportunity rather than a reason to chase momentum.

For crypto, the key to returning to an upward trajectory still depends on macro clarity. The 200-week moving average remains intact, and the market has not shown structural damage, meaning that once macro uncertainty diminishes, the recovery could be faster than current sentiment suggests. In the short term, we are in a range-bound, slightly downward state; the order book is dominated by leverage, and $70,000 remains an important near-term resistance level.

Finally, a recovery may occur in the second half of 2026, but reaching that point will require patience, and most participants are probably already exhausted.