U.S. December CPI Data Released: Year-over-Year Increase of 2.4%, Slightly Below Expectations

Middle East Conflict Pushes Up Oil Prices, U.S. Inflation Expectations Warm, Fed Rate Cut Outlook Under Pressure

Middle East conflict escalation drives oil price increases, raising U.S. short-term inflation expectations and affecting Federal Reserve rate-cut prospects. The one-year breakeven inflation rate reached 4.62%, while the two-year rate stands at 3.18%. High oil prices may make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, with the probability of no rate cuts in 2026 expected to rise to 44.7%.

US January PCE to be Released Tonight! Core Inflation Expected to Surge to 3.1%, Will It Shake Up Rate Cut Timeline?

The U.S. is about to release the January PCE price index, with core PCE expected to increase 3.1% year-over-year, marking the largest increase since 2024 and significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Due to different weighting allocations of items between CPI and PCE, their trends have diverged, and the "moderate" convention of PCE is also being challenged, which may impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the future.

Bitcoin Early Warning of Stock Market Risk? Global Stock Market Turbulence Intensifies After BTC Drops to $60,000

Recently, analysts have pointed out that Bitcoin's price movements often lead traditional risk assets, reflecting the weakness in global stock markets. After experiencing volatility, Bitcoin is currently stabilizing around $70,000, with market sentiment being affected by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. Historical data shows that Bitcoin often exhibits signs of peaking before stock market corrections, and investors are beginning to regard it as an important indicator for monitoring risk asset sentiment.

Liquidity Alert Before FOMC Meeting: Private Credit Funds Restrict Redemptions, Bitcoin and Ethereum May Face Selling Pressure

As the Federal Reserve is about to hold an FOMC meeting, liquidity in the U.S. private credit market is tight, with several funds restricting investor redemptions, potentially triggering a chain reaction and causing capital to flow out to more liquid assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Market risks are increasing, and it is important to monitor the Fed's policy moves and shifts in capital flows.

Why Did the Crypto Market Rise Today? Bitcoin Approaches $72,000 as Plummeting Oil Prices and Trump's Statements Become Key Drivers

The cryptocurrency market is showing overall strength, with total market capitalization reaching $2.51 trillion. Bitcoin is approaching $72,000, while Ethereum is around $2,100. The rally has been driven by declining crude oil prices and institutional capital inflows, while the U.S. stock market decline has created a divergence with independent cryptocurrency market movements. Leveraged market short positions are being squeezed, capital flows into spot ETFs remain robust, and geopolitical factors have also improved market sentiment.

MOVE index surges 21%! Bitcoin and Ethereum options turn to defensive strategies

The MOVE Index surged 21% on March 12, signaling that inflation concerns are spreading to global bond markets. Options data for Bitcoin and Ethereum show conservative market sentiment, with put ratios rising. Despite increased financial risks, implied volatility in crypto markets remains relatively stable, but if US Treasury volatility continues to rise, it could put pressure on crypto markets. Overall, the market currently maintains a cautious stance toward risk assets.