The probability of a US government shutdown soars to 78%, and Bitcoin and the crypto market face extreme fear shocks.

January 26 News: The risk of a US government shutdown has sharply increased this week, with forecast market data showing the probability of a shutdown before January 31st has surged to approximately 78%, up from 10% three days ago. As Congress becomes deadlocked over funding for the Department of Homeland Security, risk aversion sentiment is rapidly spreading, and the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has fallen into the “Extreme Fear” zone, with Bitcoin and mainstream digital assets experiencing significantly increased volatility.

This uncertainty stems from the opposition between the two US parties over immigration enforcement and related budgets. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer stated that he would not support the current version of the temporary funding bill, citing the lack of constraints on ICE’s powers. DHS funding remains unresolved, meaning that once the deadline arrives, the operation of the federal government could be disrupted again. NoLimit pointed out that if data releases are forced to be interrupted, CPI and employment reports will be delayed, impacting Federal Reserve decision-making and market risk assessments.

The reaction of safe-haven assets has already been very evident. Gold prices have broken through $5,000 per ounce, and silver has also surpassed the $100 mark, indicating funds are flowing back into traditional defensive assets. Historical experience shows that during the 43-day government shutdown in 2025, precious metals significantly outperformed risk assets, while Bitcoin at that time retraced about 20%, highlighting its high sensitivity to liquidity and macroeconomic data.

Analyst Justin Wu believes that a shutdown not only means delays in wages and contracts but also freezes part of the financial system’s operations, thereby suppressing risk appetite. If the deadlock continues, GDP could be dragged down by 0.2% per week, and repurchase markets and money market funds could also come under pressure. In this environment, the crypto market is more susceptible to short-term emotional shocks and difficult to form stable buying interest.

Although Congress still has room to pass new funding or temporary resolutions to avoid a shutdown, as January 31 approaches, traders have already priced in a higher probability. For investors, paying attention to US fiscal and political developments will become a key variable in assessing Bitcoin and crypto asset trends.