Analysis: Although the demand for bullish options has been strong recently, it continues to reflect asymmetric downside risk.

PANews January 23 News, according to Glassnode analysis, during Bitcoin’s rally in mid-January, the 25D skew over one week was pulled from a deeply bearish zone toward neutral. During the same period, the put/call volume ratio dropped from 1 to 0.4, indicating strong bullish activity. The key issue is not whether bullish options are being bought, but how short the actual duration of this demand is. Longer-term skews show different situations: the one-month 25D skew only moved from a 7% low to 4%, still in a bearish asymmetrical zone; the three-month 25D skew changed by less than 1.5% and remained firmly in the bearish region. Despite recent strong demand for bullish options, this still reflects asymmetric downside risk. This divergence indicates that upward demand is genuine but concentrated in the short term. Trading volume exists, but risks have not been re-priced across all maturities.

Meanwhile, at-the-money implied volatility was sold during the price increase, with gamma sellers taking profits during the rally. This volatility behavior is not characteristic of a sustainable breakout. An ideal breakout requires the spot price to approach key levels, skew across all maturities to firmly point higher, and volatility to be bought. Last week’s movements did not meet these conditions.