Bitcoin is clearly weakening compared to gold, raising serious questions about the long-standing narrative that Bitcoin is “digital gold.”
While gold prices continuously hit new highs, currently hovering just below the $5,000/ounce mark and up about 12% since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has only slightly increased compared to the start of the year and still trades around $90,000.
*BTCUSD/Gold (TradingView)*This divergence is not only evident in the short term but also very clear on longer timeframes. Considering both the one-year and five-year cycles, gold consistently outperforms Bitcoin. Over the past five years, Bitcoin has increased by approximately 150%, while gold has recorded an increase of about 160%.
The BTC/gold ratio is currently around 18.46, significantly below the 200-week moving average (200WMA) – a long-term trend indicator based on nearly four years of price data. The 200WMA currently sits around 21.90, meaning the BTC/gold ratio is about 17% below this long-term trend.
During the last major bear market in 2022, the BTC/gold ratio fell more than 30% below the 200WMA and remained in this state for over a year. The current weakening began in November, suggesting that if history repeats itself, this ratio could stay below the 200WMA until the end of 2026.
Previously, the BTC/gold ratio peaked near 40.9 in December 2024. Since then, Bitcoin has lost about 55% of its value relative to gold. In previous cycles, the decline was even more severe, with a 77% drop in the 2022 bear market and up to 84% during 2017–2018.
Thach Sanh
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