Institutional funds may find it difficult to push Bitcoin to $150,000, researchers warn of a risk of falling back to $60,000

January 22 News, macro researcher and FFTT founder Luke Gromen stated in a recent interview that, without a strong catalytic event, institutional funds are unlikely to push Bitcoin from the $90,000 level to $150,000 solely on their own by 2026. He told Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories program that the typical strategy for institutional investors is to wait for certainty rather than actively chasing gains in the absence of clear drivers.

Based on current market quotes, if Bitcoin rises from approximately $90,000 to $150,000, the increase will be close to 70%, significantly surpassing the previous all-time high. Gromen believes that such a level of rally usually requires major macro-level changes as triggers, such as the substantial implementation of the US regulatory framework or the Federal Reserve shifting back to an accommodative monetary policy.

However, there is another voice in the market. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that over the past year, institutional funds have bought approximately 577,000 Bitcoin, worth over $50 billion, indicating that long-term allocation demand is still accumulating. Previously, Grayscale also believed that clearer regulations and increased institutional willingness to allocate could push Bitcoin to new highs in the first half of 2026.

Alongside bullish expectations, there is also caution about downside risks. Gromen warned that if a comprehensive trade conflict occurs globally, the US economy enters recession, or corporate cash flows come under pressure, Bitcoin could experience a rapid decline, potentially returning to the $60,000 range. In such an environment, some companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin might be forced to sell assets, releasing additional supply into the market.

Data shows that Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, currently holds over 700,000 Bitcoin, making it one of the largest public Bitcoin treasury entities in the world, while all listed companies combined hold over 1.1 million Bitcoin. If macroeconomic conditions worsen, this potential selling pressure could have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices.

In the complex macro environment of 2026, both upside and downside risks for Bitcoin exist simultaneously. Institutional funds remain an important support, but whether the price can break new highs may still depend on the direction of global policies and liquidity.