Trading Moment: "Sell US" trades trigger gold to hit a new high of $4888, Bitcoin faces short-term divergence, Ethereum faces a battle to defend $2800

Daily Market Highlights and Trend Analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The global financial markets ushered in turbulence on January 20th due to a fierce sell-off in the Japanese long-term government bond market. Concerns over Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s expansionary fiscal plans potentially triggering a “Japan Truss Moment,” led to the 40-year Japanese government bond yield breaking through 4% for the first time in history. Traders described this sell-off as “crazy,” which quickly propagated through Japan, one of the largest holders of U.S. debt, transmitting pressure to the U.S. and pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up to 4.311%. Citigroup issued a warning that volatility in the Japanese bond market could force risk parity funds to sell up to $130 billion worth of bonds in the U.S. market.

As U.S. stocks opened on Tuesday, market sentiment was released after former President Trump reiterated the need to control Greenland and threatened tariffs on several European countries. This ignited a “sell US” trading pattern, with U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar experiencing a “triple kill”, with the S&P 500 plunging 2.1%, erasing all gains made this year. The VIX fear index also surged to its highest level since November last year. In response, Danish pension fund AkademikerPension, managing $25 billion in assets, announced it would liquidate all U.S. Treasury holdings by the end of the month due to fears of credit risk stemming from U.S. policies.

In this global risk-off wave, capital flooded into hard assets, with retail demand for silver reaching unprecedented levels, leading to refinery stock shortages in multiple countries. The Polish central bank announced approval to increase gold holdings by 150 tons, further reinforcing central banks’ efforts to hedge against fiat currency devaluation and geopolitical risks. This drove spot gold prices to surpass $4,800 per ounce for the first time in history, reaching a peak of $4,888. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen attempted to soothe markets, stating she had communicated with Japanese officials who would stabilize the market, and she was not worried about any U.S. debt sell-off related to Greenland. However, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that a “capital war” might be brewing. Looking ahead, with the Federal Reserve’s independence under threat from Supreme Court cases, the market’s strange calm has been shattered. Unless fundamental issues of geopolitical tensions and fiscal discipline are addressed, extreme volatility may become the new normal.

Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 mark amid macro headwinds and geopolitical tensions, briefly dropping to $87,790, wiping out all gains this year. Over the past 48 hours, over $1.8 billion in liquidations occurred across the network. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe emphasized the need to closely monitor U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices; if both continue to surge, market pressure will persist. The BTC-to-gold ratio has fallen to a historic low, and technically, it must hold the 50-day moving average to avoid a deep correction. Trader Killa, comparing current conditions to 2022, pointed out that unless Bitcoin recovers the previous high of $946,000, the price could continue downward, with MicroStrategy’s average buy-in price of $75,979 serving as a psychological support level. More pessimistic predictions come from veteran trader Peter Brandt, who warned that resistance at $98,000 could lead to a drop to $60,000 or lower, while Cheds Trading has set a bottom range of $35,000 to $45,000.

However, there are also strong bullish voices. Trader il Capo of Crypto believes the current zone is a key support level, and if held, the next target is $100,000. Analyst Sykodelic suggests that even if the price drops below $80,000 for liquidity clearing, it remains a healthy correction in a bull market, preparing for a push toward $110,000. Although analyst Astronomer exited with stops, he maintains a bullish bias, believing a weekly bottom is forming with targets at $95,000 and $112,000, and even in a bear scenario, the bottom will stay above $50,000. On-chain data supports the bulls, with Santiment’s monitoring showing that whale addresses holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have accumulated over 36,000 BTC in the past nine days, indicating “smart money” accumulation divergence. Analyst Garrett fundamentally refutes the bear market theory, emphasizing that the macro environment now is very different from 2022, with institutional ETF inflows changing market structure. Unless a new inflation shock occurs and prices drop effectively below $80,850, any bear market talk is premature.

Ethereum nearly broke below $2,900, with technical and on-chain data showing a complex battle. Analyst Krugman pointed out that ETH failed to break the critical $3,450 resistance, leaving the weekly bearish Pinbar pattern intact. Key support is at $2,700–$2,800; if broken, the price could plunge to $1,700. Bitcoin Man’s analysis indicates ETH has broken microscopic support, but as long as it stays above $2,772, the triangle pattern remains valid, though risks of a direct decline exist. Despite negative CVD indicators, the price remains supported above $3,000, suggesting large holders are absorbing selling pressure. Harvey Hunter’s technical analysis shows ETH is forming a two-month symmetrical triangle; if it can hold current support and break through $3,350, a rebound toward the all-time high of $4,800 could be possible. However, Arthur Hayes warns that if the U.S. Treasury crisis causes the MOVE index to spike above 130, risk assets including ETH will face a painful deleveraging process.

Among mainstream coins, Solana dipped below $130 along with the broader market, but on-chain data shows whales are accumulating, with addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 SOL increasing significantly, and exchange supply dropping to a two-year low. Network activity and stablecoin supply have also hit new highs. Meanwhile, political and meme-related hype has emerged, with the White House official account posting “The memes will continue,” leading today’s BSC Meme rally. Binance co-founder He Yi also reposted this tweet, and the meme coin “$memes” surged to a market cap of $20 million. (Note: Content for reference only, not investment advice, please do your own research.)

2. Key Data (as of 1/21 13:00 HKT)

(Source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $89,746 (+2.35% YTD), daily spot trading volume: $59.44 billion
• Ethereum: $2,985 (+0.46% YTD), daily spot trading volume: $33.68 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 24 (Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 59.1%, ETH 12.4%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume top: AXS, XRP, BTC, BERA, IP
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.63% / 51.37%
• Sector gains/losses: Overall decline in crypto market, CeFi sector down over 5%

24-hour liquidation data: total of 139,733 traders liquidated, with total liquidation amounting to $764 million. BTC liquidations: $297 million, ETH: $261 million, SOL: $30.12 million.

3. ETF Flows (as of 1/20)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$483 million
• Ethereum ETF: -$230 million
• XRP ETF: -$53.32 million
• SOL ETF: +$3.08 million

4. Today’s Preview

• Zama public token auction registration is now open; bidding begins at 16:00 on January 21
• ETHGas: GWEI staking qualification query opens on January 20, community airdrop on January 21
• Solana Mobile will airdrop 2 billion SKR tokens to Seeker users before April 20
• MegaETH mainnet launch scheduled for January 22, initiating global stress testing
• Immunefi will launch platform token IMU on January 22
• Binance Alpha will launch FIGHT on January 22
• US Q4 real GDP annualized QoQ final figure (January 21, 21:30)
• US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17: ( ten thousand ): expected 20.9, previous 19.8 (January 21, 21:30)

Top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap with the largest gains today: River +21.9%, Canton Network +6.7%, Tezos +5.5%, Midnight +4.2%, World Liberty Financial +3.8%.

5. Hot News

• Spot gold surpasses $4,850 per ounce, hitting new highs
• Japan and South Korea stock markets open over 1% lower
• Pendle launches sPENDLE mechanism, replacing vePENDLE with liquidity staking
• Galaxy plans to launch a $100 million crypto hedge fund in Q1 2026, with up to 30% of assets invested in cryptocurrencies
• Solana Mobile launches native token SKR, Seeker users can claim airdrop before April 20
• U.S. stock market closes: major indices plunge, blockchain concept stocks decline across the board
• Trend Research withdraws 7,960 ETH from Binance, total ETH purchased today: 17,899
• Strategy invests $2.13 billion to acquire 22,305 BTC
• Trove Markets’ token plummeted over 95% within minutes of listing, further exacerbating negative sentiment