January 19 News: Since January, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a clear weakening trend. Against the backdrop of escalating US-EU geopolitical tensions triggered by Trump’s latest tariff stance, risk assets have come under pressure, and Bitcoin’s price has faced renewed selling pressure. In the past 24 hours, BTC has fallen nearly 2.5%, dropping to around $92,663. Multiple technical indicators and on-chain data suggest that early 2026 may be in the formation stage of a bear market structure.
Firstly, from a technical pattern perspective, the weekly chart of Bitcoin shows a “cloud distortion” in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. Analyst Titan of Crypto pointed out that the Leading Span A and Leading Span B have crossed at the weekly level, indicating a shift in future trend from bullish to bearish. Reviewing historical cycles, similar patterns often correspond to medium- to long-term correction phases, and do not necessarily lead to an immediate crash, but rather a gradual weakening of market structure.
The second signal comes from key moving average resistance. Currently, Bitcoin’s price remains below the 365-day moving average, which is around the $101,000 level. Coin Bureau believes that this area has repeatedly suppressed rebounds in the previous bear market, with prices unable to establish a solid footing, usually indicating that the market has not yet escaped the bear environment.
Third, looking at historical retracement patterns, Bitcoin experienced over 70% deep corrections after peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. The maximum decline in this cycle so far is just over 30%. Comparing with past rhythms, this retracement still appears insufficient, implying that the downward process may not be fully underway yet.
Fourth, macro cycle indicators also lean bearish. Some bull-bear cycle models show that Bitcoin has entered a bear market zone since October 2025, but has not yet reached an extreme stage. Historical experience suggests that before officially bottoming out, there are often more pronounced sentiment clearings.
Fifth, on-chain capital flow signals a warning. Recently, the number of wallets depositing into exchanges has increased, mainly from medium to large holders with holdings between 10–100 BTC and 100–1,000 BTC. Such funds typically represent strategic allocations rather than short-term noise, indicating that some large holders may be preparing for potential selling.
Overall, Bitcoin shows multiple bear market signals across technical indicators, historical models, and on-chain behavior. Although short-term rebounds may still occur, macro uncertainties and changes in capital structure mean that downside risks for BTC remain significant.
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