MICA Daily｜Affected by the Iran situation, market trading is quiet, and BTC continues to flow into exchanges

Although there have been many news reports about Iran over the weekend, the United States and Israel have not taken any action so far, so the crypto market remained relatively calm over the weekend. BTC is still struggling above $90,000, but since the daily charts are currently in a downtrend and the global situation is uncertain, market sentiment is insufficient to support a breakout. This week, although the US will release key economic data such as CPI, market focus remains on Trump’s actions. Therefore, the market is expected to be primarily driven by news, especially the changing situation in the Middle East and Iran. According to the latest data from CryptoQuant, Binance’s Bitcoin derivatives market showed clear signs of contraction over the past week. The 7-day change rate of BTC open interest (OI) plummeted from +9% on January 8 to -2% on the 11th, a decrease of 11%. This shift indicates that traders are heavily closing positions, especially long positions, which may be decreasing due to active exit or forced liquidations. Meanwhile, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has been steadily declining since January 8, indicating increased selling pressure in the market. Since the decline in CVD coincides with the contraction of open interest, it further confirms that the market is experiencing a withdrawal of longs and a resurgence of selling pressure. In terms of capital flow, Binance’s large inflow of funds (30-day rolling total) has slightly increased from $3 billion to $3.6 billion, showing initial signs of distribution. This growth pattern is highly similar to early October last year. Historically, increased whale activity like this often signals that the market is about to enter a short-term profit-taking phase. Although the current volatility has not yet reached a severe spike, the combination of declining open interest and whale deposits into exchanges suggests that market sentiment has become more cautious. Investors should closely monitor subsequent distribution behaviors and the risk of price corrections.