[TP Academy⑧] The secret of Bitcoin's four-year cycle... see the forest rather than the trees

To help investors navigate the noise of the cryptocurrency market, “TokenPost Academy,” with 8 years of on-site experience, will provide a true investment standard. We invite you to join a seven-stage masterclass journey that replaces “feelings” with “data,” “luck” with “strength,” and challenges the top 1%. [Editor’s Note]

“Bitcoin, is it still a good buy now?”

To answer this question, you need to turn off the charts and look outside the window. Because Bitcoin’s price is not determined solely by charts, but is the product of a huge cycle where global capital flows (macro) and Bitcoin’s internal clock (halving) intersect and operate together.

◆ The Secret of Price: Look at the Denominator

When we look at the price, we only focus on the “numerator (asset).” “Is Bitcoin advantageous?” But the real secret lies in the “denominator (currency value).” Price = [Asset Value ÷ Currency Value]. If government printing causes the currency value to halve, even if Bitcoin remains unchanged, the price will double.

Overlaying Bitcoin price charts with global money supply (M2) charts reveals an astonishing correlation. The cryptocurrency market is not just tech stocks; it is a “test paper most sensitive to global liquidity.” That’s why it’s essential to pay attention to the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s interest rate decisions and exchange rates.

◆ The Heart of Bitcoin, “Halving”

If liquidity is the external wave, then inside Bitcoin there is a beating heart—this is the “halving,” which occurs approximately every four years, reducing mining rewards by half. The supply halves overnight. If demand remains unchanged, the price will surge. This is a “supply shock.”

The combination of these two (liquidity + halving) forms the “four-season cycle” of the crypto market.

Winter (Bear Market): Bubble bursts, smart money accumulates chips.

Spring (Recovery): Expectations before halving, rising amid doubts.

Summer (Bull Market): Supply shock and liquidity explosion, breaking previous highs.

Autumn (Frenzy): Retail investors enter, smart money withdraws.

◆ “Master’s View on Cycles”

The public buys excitedly in summer and sells in panic during winter. But experts sow seeds in winter and harvest in summer. Don’t be overly optimistic or worried about today’s price swings. “Is capital being released now?” “Is supply decreasing?” Only those who understand this big trend can seize enormous wealth opportunities.

This issue discusses “macroeconomics” and “market cycles.” Beyond charts and on-chain data, it explains the “four-year cycle” created by global liquidity and Bitcoin halving, offering a “macro master” perspective that sees the forest rather than the trees.

👉 The complete lecture and practical case studies of the seven-stage masterclass will continue in TokenPost Academy’s “Stage 7: The Macro Master.”

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