2026, the Year of Hard Assets! Gold and silver enter a continuous ten-year super cycle

In 2025, silver surged by 165%, and gold increased by 66%, marking the best performance since 1979. Gold hit 91 new highs within 27 months, nearly breaking records every week. Experts point out that this is a structural re-pricing of global capital shifting toward hard assets. Goldman Sachs states that the market remains in the “early stages of a super cycle that could last ten years.”

The Era of Fiscal Dominance Driving Hard Asset Revaluation

The factors driving the rise in hard asset prices are far more profound and lasting than inflation itself. The world is entering a low-interest-rate but fiscally unstable environment, with government debt continuing to climb and policy flexibility diminishing. Real yields remain under pressure, purchasing power erodes, and capital is steadily shifting from financial assets to tangible assets.

Fiscal dominance has become a prominent feature of the global economy. Debt servicing costs constrain policymakers, making inflation, currency devaluation, and financial repression increasingly unavoidable. Hard assets benefit directly: they are priced in depreciating currencies but represent limited, real-world inputs. Lars Hansen, Director of the Gold Silver Club Research, states: “This is not a bubble burst; it is a typical example of global re-pricing. When confidence in the paper asset system weakens, capital begins to shift toward physical assets.”

The momentum of gold’s rise is particularly noteworthy. Since October 2023, gold prices have climbed from $1,800 per ounce, reaching 91 new all-time highs in just 27 months. Over the past two and a half years, gold has been setting records almost weekly. Such a meteoric rise has never been seen in modern market history. Silver stands out as the best-performing commodity of 2025, with a 165% increase, closing at a record high of $83.62 per ounce. Platinum follows closely, with gains exceeding 140%, driven by long-term supply shortages and rising investor demand.

Geopolitical Fragmentation Accelerates Resource Nationalism

Geopolitical fragmentation has intensified the structural revaluation of hard assets. Globalization has given way to a multipolar system characterized by trade barriers, resource nationalism, and strategic reserves. Energy, food, and critical materials are now national security issues. Supply chains are being rebuilt, costs are rising, and long-term equilibrium prices are increasing accordingly.

This shift is especially evident in metal markets. Major resource powers like China and Russia are strengthening export controls on critical minerals, while Europe and the US are actively promoting supply chain localization. This de-globalization trend means the reliance on low-cost production models is disappearing, replaced by “security premiums”—even at higher costs—to ensure supply stability. For hard asset investors, this structural change will support higher price floors.

Four Drivers of the 2026 Hard Asset Super Cycle

Monetization of Fiscal Deficits: Global government debt-to-GDP ratios hit new highs, with central banks forced to suppress real interest rates, leading to continuous depreciation of fiat currencies.

Geopolitical Fragmentation: Trade barriers and resource nationalism drive supply chain rebuilding, structurally increasing costs.

Industrial Demand Revolution: AI, electrification, and defense spending are fueling explosive demand for copper, silver, aluminum, nickel, and other metals.

Institutional Allocation Shift: Sovereign wealth funds and family offices are upgrading their hard asset allocations from tactical hedges to strategic positions.

The Industrial Demand Revolution Reshapes Hard Asset Values

At the same time, industrial demand is undergoing a structural transformation. Accelerating developments in AI, electrification, automation, and defense spending are driving sustained demand for copper, aluminum, silver, and nickel. As capital expenditure shifts from financial engineering to physical infrastructure, hard assets are moving from the periphery to the core of investment portfolios.

Take silver as an example: over 50% of its demand comes from industrial applications, from solar panels to 5G base stations, from electric vehicles to AI data centers. Silver’s conductivity and thermal properties make it an irreplaceable critical material. The 165% surge in silver in 2025 is not speculative hype but a true reflection of supply and demand fundamentals. The story of copper is similar; the global electrification wave could double copper demand over the next decade, but new mine development cycles take 10 to 15 years, and supply gaps will continue to widen.

Institutional Capital Flows into Hard Asset Allocations

Institutional behavior also confirms this shift. Sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, and family offices are no longer viewing hard assets as tactical hedges but increasingly as strategic holdings—this change will alter market structures and support higher prices in the coming years.

Wall Street also echoes this view. Goldman Sachs recently told clients, “The outlook for the commodity markets in 2026 is more optimistic than ever,” and stated that the market remains in “the beginning of a super cycle that could last many years, even up to ten.” Major institutions have reached similar conclusions in their outlooks for 2026.

Skeptics argue that the opportunity for easy profits is gone. But data shows the opposite is true. In 2025, the commodities market not only hit new highs but also accelerated growth, with broader participation. Historically, this pattern signals the early stage of a super cycle in hard assets, not its end. Analysts at the Gold Silver Club have believed since early 2021 that commodities are entering a new super cycle. Five years later, this view is further validated. Hansen notes: “Super cycles do not end after five years; they mature when supply finally catches up with demand—and we are still far from that stage.”

Overall, various factors influencing 2026 suggest the world will be more divided, resource-scarce, and more dependent on material inputs than at any time in decades. Hard assets are no longer optional but essential. Hansen states: “This is not a prediction; it is a statement of fact. 2026 will be remembered as the Year of Hard Assets.”

Historical experience shows that during periods of structural re-pricing, rewards go not to the hesitant but to those who early position, maintain discipline, and act before consensus fully forms.