Morning Minute: Bitcoin Grinds Up Amidst Venezuela Conflict

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack. GM! Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors see big green, up 6-9% YTD; BTC at $93,000
• BTC ETFs see biggest day of inflows since Nov 11 on Friday
• Memes outperform to start the year with PEPE +67% and BONK +55%
• Lighter pops 8% to $2.79 following last week’s TGE
• Infinex launches ICO over the weekend, raising at $99.99M

🟢 Bitcoin Grinds Up Amidst Venezuela Conflict Geopolitical conflicts usually send Bitcoin into a tailspin. Not this time. 📌 What Happened Following the pre-dawn U.S. military raid in Caracas and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, the crypto market saw a swift but short-lived shock. Bitcoin initially dipped to $89,300, but quickly regained $90,000 and then marched up across the weekend, now officially reclaiming the $93,000 level It’s now up 6% YTD.

The recovery hasn’t been limited to BTC though. Ethereum (+7%), XRP (+15%) and Solana (+9%) have each outperformed Bitcoin so far on the year, jumping to $3,180, $2.12 and $135 respectively. But those gains pale in comparison to what’s happening in the meme coin market in early 2026. PEPE is up 70%, BONK is up 55% and several top memes are up 20%-30%+ so far this year. It seems the risk appetite is on. 🗣️ What They’re Saying “The only market where there was actual trading during the U.S. military operation was the cryptocurrency market… prices were steady.” - Steve Goldstein 🧠 Why It Matters For risk markets, the Maduro capture is a massive event to start 2026—and likely a catalyst. The U.S. is now directly intervening in the energy infrastructure of a nation with the world’s largest oil reserves. This likely means a volatile open for crude oil and gold on Monday as markets weigh a “stabilized” Venezuela against international backlash.

But the early response is overwhelmingly a signal to go risk on. The Trump admin is clearly not afraid of making big moves and moves that put the US in a stronger global position. And there will be big impacts down the line from taking over this amount of oil, rare earth minerals, gold and more. Inflation is likely impacted. Demand for the US dollar in global trade is likely impacted. More impacts will trickle out over time. As for the crypto market, it’s nice to see Bitcoin and crypto majors resilient during such a volatile period. Historically, global headlines like this cause flash crashes at a minimum. Not this time. Perhaps a sign of maturity. Perhaps a sign of true exhaustion from sellers, after the brutal Q4 drawdown. Maybe both. But our near-term outlook just got more bullish—let’s hope those bull vibes continue…



🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• The global crypto market cap hit $3.16T (+1.5%) with majors trading higher; BTC +2% at $93,000; ETH +1% at $3,175, BNB +2.5% at $906, SOL +1% at $135
• Virtuals (+24%), RENDER (_17%), BTT (+11%) and FET (+11%) led top movers
• The BTC ETFs saw $471M in net inflows on the first trading day of 2026, the highest single-day total since Nov 11
• SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw officially departed the agency on Jan 2nd, leaving behind an all-Republican commission
• Big 4 firm PWC announced it will go deeper into crypto with a focus on stablecoins and payments

In Corporate Treasuries / ETFs

• Strategy acquired 1,229 additional Bitcoin between December 22nd and December 28th for approximately $108.8M, bringing its total treasury holdings to 672,497 BTC
• BitMine acquired 44,463 additional ETH over the past week, bringing its total treasury to 4.11M ETH
• BitMine (BMNR) stock jumped 14% on Friday after Tom Lee requested a share increase from 500M to 50B to fund more ETH acquisitions

In Memes / Onchain Movers

• Memecoin leaders are ripping to start the year; DOGE (+26%), SHIB (+25%), PEPE (+67%), BONK (+55%), WIF (+43%) and FARTCOIN (+42%) are the top performers
• PONKE (+110%), SHEKER (+27,000%) and 114514 (+1,600%) were top onchain meme movers; Whitewhale +22% to $76M
• Lets Bonk saw a major increase in trading volume and revenue over the past few days as BONK outperformed

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

• Lighter launched its LIT token and completed its airdrop on Dec 30, now trading at $2.68 ($2.68B FDV)
• The Jupiter team is considering stopping buybacks after sharing that its $70M in buybacks last year didn’t move the needle
• Fogo officially canceled its $1B ICO, opting instead for a community-first airdrop model and mainnet launch on Jan 13
• Infinex opened up its ICO sale on Echo, selling 5% of the INX tokens at $99.99M FDV with a 1-year lock, ahead of a late January TGE
• Kaito shared plans to roll out new thresholds proving onchain holdings and reputation to combat its bot problem
• Based terminal announced that its BASED token will come in Q1 2026
• Ranger is launching its ICO on MetaDAO tomorrow with a $6M minimum raise

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

• NFT leaders are trending up; Punks +2.6% at 29.39 ETH, Pudgy +8% at 5.09 ETH, BAYC +14% at 5.26 ETH
• Winds of Yawanawa (+40%) and Azuki (+18%) were top movers
• A Smiling Cowboy Punk sold for 169 ETH ($529,139), the biggest non-Hoodie sale in months