Why did Bitcoin rise today? Maduro's arrest triggered a rebound to $91,000

Bitcoin prices briefly dipped over the weekend, then quickly rebounded to around $91,000 on January 4th, up approximately 2%. Market volatility was triggered by U.S. President Trump announcing military strikes against Venezuela and capturing President Maduro. Cryptocurrencies demonstrated resilience amid geopolitical shocks, with technical indicators showing solid support at $88,000. Breaking through $92,000 could challenge the high of $93,500.

Geopolitical Black Swan Triggers Short-Term Market Panic

Around 2 a.m. Eastern Time on Saturday, Trump issued a shocking statement via Truth Social, announcing that U.S. forces had launched a “large-scale strike” against Venezuela and successfully carried out the arrest of its leader, Nicolas Maduro. Trump claimed that Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, had been jointly captured by U.S. military and law enforcement and forcibly removed from Venezuela.

Following the news, the cryptocurrency market immediately experienced turbulence. Bitcoin dropped about 0.5% to approximately $89,300 around 2 a.m. Eastern Time, briefly plunging into risk-off mode. However, this decline was short-lived; as of press time (before 9 a.m. ET), Bitcoin had recovered to just below $90,000, indicating increasing market resilience to geopolitical risks.

Reports from Caracas, Venezuela, indicated explosions and flames, with multiple images showing smoke over the city and signs of fires near buildings. BBC cited witnesses describing loud explosions and noticeable tremors. Venezuela has rejected and condemned the actions as “military aggression,” declaring a state of emergency nationwide. U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland later announced that Maduro and his wife were indicted in the Southern District of New York on charges related to drug trafficking and weapons.

Why Is Bitcoin Rising Today? Analyzing Three Key Factors

Strengthening Safe-Haven Status: Unlike traditional stock markets that experience sharp volatility amid geopolitical risks, Bitcoin quickly rebounded after a brief dip, demonstrating its recognition as a hedge against systemic financial risks. Venezuela has long faced economic sanctions and currency devaluation, with locals already using cryptocurrencies as a store of value. This incident has instead reinforced that narrative.

Strong Technical Support Levels: The $88,000 to $88,500 zone has repeatedly provided support over the past two weeks, with buyers continuously absorbing at these levels. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages are flattening and converging in this area, forming a short-term support buffer. As long as prices stay above this critical zone, market confidence remains intact.

Long-Term Holders Not Selling: On-chain data shows that despite volatile movements in December, long-term holders have not engaged in panic selling. Smaller candlestick bodies and shorter wicks indicate a lack of aggressive buying or selling, suggesting the market is consolidating rather than weakening. This holding behavior reduces selling pressure and provides upward flexibility.

Technical Outlook: Breakout Imminent or Double Bottom?

(Source: Trading View)

From the two-hour chart, Bitcoin remains bullish after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern is formed by a lower high near $93,500 and an ascending bottom between $85,800 and $87,000. Such formations typically signal a period of compression, often foreshadowing increased volatility.

Key technical indicators show Bitcoin continuing to make new lows along the upward trendline since mid-December, further reinforcing potential demand. RSI has stabilized around 60, indicating improving momentum but not yet overbought. No bearish divergence or negative EMA crossovers are currently observed, so downside risk is temporarily controlled.

If the closing price confirms above the $90,500 to $90,900 zone, it could open the door for further gains, targeting $93,500. If momentum continues to strengthen, prices could even extend to the $96,000–$97,000 range. Conversely, failure to hold above $88,000 would weaken support, with $85,800 becoming a key level again.

The total cryptocurrency market cap has rebounded to nearly $3 trillion, with 24-hour trading volume approaching $116 billion. These indicators show active participation but no signs of overtrading typical at market tops. The fear and greed index remains cautious, reflecting persistent uncertainty rather than speculative euphoria.

Market Insider Trading Controversy Heats Up

(Source: Polymarket)

This incident has also sparked questions about insider trading in prediction markets. According to Axios, a Polymarket account created in late December last year made only four predictions, all related to U.S. intervention in Venezuela, betting about $32,500 that Maduro would be ousted before January 31st, with implied probabilities in the single digits. After the news of Maduro’s arrest was confirmed Saturday morning, that account netted over $400,000, with a return rate exceeding 1,200%.

Even more suspicious, the market began rising toward this expectation several hours before Trump announced Maduro’s ouster—specifically before 10 p.m. ET on Friday. Congressman Ritchie Torres plans to introduce the “Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act,” aiming to prohibit federal officials from participating in prediction markets when they possess material nonpublic information. The bill would extend the principles of the Securities Act to prediction markets, which had a total trading volume exceeding $44 billion in 2025.

Kalshi’s official account noted that, according to the market’s rules manual, insiders or decision-makers are prohibited from trading based on material nonpublic information. However, regulatory enforcement remains uncertain.