Analysts point out that Bitcoin is hovering near the “crucial long-term support line,” and has been holding on for over 3 weeks, causing the market’s bulls to be on edge. However, the publicly traded company Strategy (MSTR), the largest holder of Bitcoin globally, has already broken through this “safety line,” sending a strong bearish signal to the crypto market.
Senior CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole explained that this “safety line” is the extremely critical “100-week simple moving average (100-week SMA)” in technical analysis, which mainly reflects the average cost over the past two years and is used by major market technicians to identify major trend reversals, long-term support, or confirm crashes.
From the trend perspective, the 100-week moving average has provided strong support for three consecutive weeks, halting Bitcoin’s sharp decline from its all-time high of $126,000.
Godbole described this moving average as a “safety net” that successfully caught Bitcoin during its price fall.
If the price can rebound from this level, the market will expect this support to act as a “springboard,” becoming the starting point for a new wave of recovery; conversely, if the price breaks below the 100-week SMA, it could lead to shaken confidence among holders, increased selling pressure, and further dominance by the bears, potentially expanding the downward trend.
Worryingly, the stock price trend of Strategy (MSTR) seems to have already foreshadowed the worst-case scenario. See the trend comparison below:
MSTR’s stock price fell below the 100-week SMA as early as early November when it dropped to $220, and then selling pressure continued to grow, with the stock price plunging to $160, a decline of over 60% from this year’s high of $457.
For Bitcoin bulls, this is a warning that cannot be ignored, because MSTR has historically led Bitcoin’s trend multiple times. Earlier, when MSTR broke below the same long-term trend indicator—the 50-week SMA—it also preempted a weakening of Bitcoin’s subsequent market.
The current situation is very clear: Bitcoin bulls must do everything possible to defend the 100-week SMA.
Holding this line could mark the start of a desperate counterattack; failing to do so might see Bitcoin follow in MSTR’s footsteps, falling into an even deeper decline.
_
Disclaimer: This article is for market information only. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. They do not represent the views and positions of BlockCast. Investors should make their own decisions and trades. The author and BlockCast are not responsible for any direct or indirect losses resulting from investor transactions.
_
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
The US-Iran conflict enters the second phase: Trump emphasizes "no ground action for now," airstrikes have destroyed over 3,000 targets, Bitcoin drops to 67,000.
Trump stated that the U.S. military currently has no plans to deploy ground troops, mainly conducting airstrikes, and has destroyed over 3,000 Iranian military targets. Market risk aversion has increased, with Bitcoin dropping to $67,000. The fighting continues between both sides, and Iran has vowed to retaliate.
動區BlockTempo9m ago
PEPE faces volatility risk as the threat of a "short squeeze" increases
The memecoin market is experiencing a significant downturn as the total industry capitalization has dropped by 48% over the past year and declined another 6.9% in the most recent month, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Meanwhile, a report from Glassnode indicates that this sector has only grown modestly by 2.2% in the past t
TapChiBitcoin11m ago
Willy Woo: BTC's early decline was too rapid, and it is now creating conditions for a rebound to $85,000.
On March 8th, analyst Willy Woo pointed out that Bitcoin faced resistance near $75,000, but since mid-February, capital flows have been recovering, and market sentiment may shift toward risk appetite. Although there is a short-term rebound opportunity, in the long term, Bitcoin remains in the mid-stage of a bear market and may experience sideways consolidation and test resistance levels.
GateNews59m ago
Today, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is at 12, indicating the market is in extreme fear.
Gate News Report, March 8th, according to Alternative.me data, today’s cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is at 12, indicating the market is in a "Extreme Fear" state. This index measures market sentiment, with lower values indicating higher levels of fear.
GateNews1h ago
CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin NUPL-MVRV indicator reaches 0.33, indicating that extreme selling conditions are moderating
Gate News Announcement, March 8 — CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on X platform that Bitcoin may have entered the mid-stage of this bear market cycle. Data shows that the NUPL–MVRV harmonic composite indicator has reached 0.33, while historical cycle bottoms typically occur around the -0.5 level. The chart indicates that the start of the bear market cycle is trending upward, suggesting that extreme selling conditions are moderating. However, the indicator remains well above historical bottom levels, indicating that a full-scale market sell-off has not yet been confirmed.
GateNews2h ago
