From CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin Bear Market: the Crypto Assets bubble burst in 2021.

Bitcoin has been falling since reaching an all-time high in October. CryptoQuant pointed out in a recent report that BTC has officially entered a Bear Market and warned that the demand zone could allow the price to dip to $56,000. However, Simon Dedic, a partner at Moonrock Capital, takes a long-term view, believing that the crypto market is now in a late stage similar to the “dot-com bubble,” presenting unprecedented investment opportunities.

CryptoQuant Report: ETF Outflows Expose BTC Demand Gap

ETF inflow reversal

CryptoQuant data shows that U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs reduced their holdings by approximately 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, totaling around $2.1 billion, ending the continuous accumulation trend observed over the past year.

SoSoValue data

This has significant symbolic meaning for the market, given that ETFs are the biggest driving force behind this bull market, and are now becoming net sellers. Therefore, weak demand for ETFs can serve as an important signal that the overall market structure is cooling down.

Whales no longer buy the dip

At the same time, addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC are also the main demand during past bullish cycles, including ETFs, corporations, and other individual entities.

However, CryptoQuant pointed out that the growth rate of this group is lower than the long-term trend, similar to the end of 2021, when weak demand also triggered the Bear Market of 2022.

(10x Research Outlook 2026: Bitcoin has entered a Bear Market, with liquidity and election cycles becoming key variables)

BTC broke below the 365-day moving average

Bitcoin recently fell to around 88,000 USD, down 30% from the historical high in October, symbolizing a break below the 365-day moving average. CryptoQuant believes this is the most reliable “bull-bear boundary” in past cycles.

The report estimates that the low point of this cycle may fall around 56,000 USD, while around 70,000 USD serves as intermediate support.

Simon Dedic is finding opportunities in the fog: the best investment window in the coming years.

Simon Dedic, a partner at Moonrock Capital, takes a longer-term perspective, believing that cryptocurrency is at a stage similar to that of the internet bubble burst twenty years ago.

After the 2000 internet bubble burst, the long-term trend of the Nasdaq market and the number of global internet users Bitcoin ≠ altcoins ≠ crypto market

Dedic emphasizes that Bitcoin should not be confused with altcoins, as neither can represent the entire crypto market. It's like the 'gold and tech stocks' of the early 2000s; they cannot and should not be interpreted on the same line.

This explains why Bitcoin has performed relatively well, while many of the best crypto market projects are facing the most severe bear market in history.

Encryption is experiencing the “late stage of a bubble”: it burst in 2021.

Dedic believes that the market took 15 years to reach new highs after the internet bubble, and we will likely see a similar recovery pattern in the crypto market: “I think the internet bubble in the crypto market burst back in 2021.”

As the adoption of new technologies accelerates and market cycles become noticeably compressed, cryptocurrencies may only need 5 to 10 years to thrive. Considering that it is now 2025, the most painful phase may already be over.

The more desperate, the closer to opportunity: Is a generational investment opportunity emerging?

In light of the pessimism and apocalyptic sentiment in the crypto community, Dedic believes that now is the best time to seek out “generational opportunities.”

He pointed out that the valuations and speculation of the last bull market have completely detached from reality, and the current reshuffle and collapse are allowing the industry to return to a true business model and value construction:

Looking back at the painful yet growth-oriented years from 2000 to 2007, it gave birth to companies like Amazon and Google. They transformed from being considered scams by many at the time into the most valuable companies in the world, delivering returns of 100 times or even 1000 times.

He emphasized: “This is what a generational investment opportunity looks like; it is neither obvious nor comfortable for anyone, yet this is precisely the best time.”

( cryptocurrency “iPhone moment” coming? Venture capitalists and traders publicly share the crypto investment rules for the next decade )

This article looks at the Bitcoin Bear Market from CryptoQuant data: the cryptocurrency bubble burst back in 2021, first appearing in Chain News ABMedia.