The largest Bitcoin options expiry in history is approaching. On X platform yesterday (19), on-chain data analysis firm Glassnode pointed out that the market still maintains a low-volatility, defensive structure, and short-term price movements are likely to remain constrained.
(Background: Has the Bitcoin super cycle ended? Fidelity warns: a cold winter may hit in 2026, supporting $65,000-$75,000)
(Additional context: Detailed review of October’s crash: the fundamental reasons behind Bitcoin’s sharp decline)

Table of Contents

• The market continues to price in downside risks
• Options trading remains predominantly defensive
• Market volatility is expected to pick up again in the new year

On-chain data analysis firm Glassnode posted on X platform yesterday (19) that the largest Bitcoin (BTC) options expiry event in history is imminent, but Bitcoin spot prices are still confined within recent oscillation ranges, with no clear direction yet. Glassnode believes that this options expiry will not only reset market positions but could also become a crucial turning point influencing subsequent price behavior.

Largest $BTC options expiry on deck, and spot is still stuck in its recent range. This thread looks at positioning and volatility signals into the event, and why this expiry could matter for price behavior next. pic.twitter.com/lRtj6c3SxX

— glassnode (@glassnode) December 19, 2025

The market continues to price in downside risks

Glassnode’s analysis indicates that over the past month, participation in the Bitcoin options market has significantly cooled down. Overall capital flows have become subdued, showing that market confidence in short-term bullish narratives is waning. However, investors’ defensive demand against downside risks still exists, and put options demand has not disappeared.

From a volatility perspective, implied volatility (IV) has synchronized downward across all expiry tenors. This suggests that the market’s demand for short-term hedging and upside leverage is decreasing, and it is expected that Bitcoin’s price will remain within a relatively controlled range. Currently, at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility is around 44%, down more than 10 volatility percentage points from recent highs, reflecting a more conservative market sentiment.

In terms of structural indicators, Glassnode pointed out that the 25-day skew remains in a positive zone dominated by puts, indicating that put options are still priced higher than call options, and the market continues to price in downside risks. Such skew structures are typically not seen before a “clean breakout” in price.

Options trading remains predominantly defensive

Additionally, strategies involving arbitrage and selling volatility remain mainstream in the market. Glassnode states that since the last FOMC meeting, the 1-week volatility risk premium has remained positive, meaning that under the backdrop of implied volatility convergence before year-end, selling volatility to earn carry remains attractive and helps suppress actual price fluctuations.

Observing capital flows, options trading this week still leans toward a defensive stance, with put options inflows exceeding call options, even though overall trading volume is not prominent. Glassnode notes that market makers currently hold positions skewed toward “long Gamma,” adjusting dynamically through hedging as prices move. This mechanism could further suppress short-term spot market volatility before year-end.

Market volatility is expected to heat up again in the new year

Finally, Glassnode summarized that with the rapid growth of Bitcoin options market size over the past year, expiry and hedging mechanisms have become increasingly influential on prices. This record-breaking expiry event will fully reset market positions and market maker exposure structures. After the position adjustments are complete, market volatility is expected to pick up again in the new year.