Report: Bitcoin Could Rise to $170,000 by 2026, Driven by U.S. Policy Reforms and Institutional Demand

The latest annual report from the Korbit Research Center in South Korea forecasts that Bitcoin will reach the $140,000 to $170,000 range in 2026. The report points out that the core drivers behind the price increase are U.S. fiscal reforms, structural institutional demand, and a strong dollar environment, rather than the traditional four-year halving cycle. The research team proposes a new macro-driven theory, emphasizing that increased U.S. productivity and capital expenditure expansion have significantly strengthened Bitcoin’s influence.

The report identifies a “stronger dollar, potential gold retracement, and increased institutional Bitcoin allocation” as the three key driving factors. ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT) are rapidly absorbing market liquidity, and as of November 2025, together they hold 11.7% of the Bitcoin supply. The “One Bold Bill” (OB3), expected to take effect in July 2025, will restore 100% bonus depreciation and immediate deduction of R&D expenses, lowering the effective corporate tax rate to an estimated 10%-12%. Korbit believes this will attract overseas capital to the U.S. and sustain the long-term strength of the dollar.

In a strong dollar and deflationary environment, gold, as a non-yielding asset, may come under pressure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s role in institutional asset allocation continues to rise, gradually forming a “sovereign-grade value storage triangle” alongside the dollar and gold. Market models are being redefined: Bitcoin is no longer solely reliant on cyclical trends, but is increasingly influenced by macro-structural changes.

The report states that Bitcoin may consolidate in the $100,000 to $120,000 range in 2025, while the true second price peak may occur in 2026, provided that global liquidity rebounds.

Institutional adoption continues to accelerate. Bitcoin ETFs are seeing strong inflows, the scale of DAT is expanding, further supporting Bitcoin’s price and market stability. On the regulatory front, the “GENIUS Act,” which takes effect in July 2025, sets clear rules for payment stablecoins and promotes comprehensive adoption of compliant stablecoins by U.S. banks and institutions.

On the technology front, Ethereum faces institutional limitations due to its 12-second finality and fully transparent mechanism, while new L1 networks with privacy and sub-second settlement, such as Arc, Tempo, and Plasma, are on the rise. Solana will launch Firedancer in 2026, further improving throughput efficiency and competing for the institutional stablecoin market.

Decentralized markets are still experiencing rapid growth. By mid-2025, DEX trading accounted for 7.6% of the market, and this is expected to rise to 15% by 2026. Perpetual contract DEXs are growing the fastest, with Hyperliquid dominating the market with a 73% share. At the same time, the scale of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization has reached $35.6 billion and will continue to expand with fintech advances.

As super apps like Robinhood accelerate integration and prediction markets like Polymarket see surging trading volumes, the crypto market is entering a new phase of competition and innovation.