Hotcoin Research | Macroeconomic policies under pressure, crypto market bottoming out

crypto market performance

Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.89 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.3%, which is $1.68 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $302.8 billion, down 0.68% over the last 7 days. It is worth noting that the number of stablecoins has seen a negative growth for 4 consecutive weeks, with USDT accounting for 60.93%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have fallen while a small portion have risen, including: CC down 32.32%, IP down 29.88% over the past 7 days, ICP down 29.03% over the past 7 days, BTC down 13.15% over the past 7 days, and ETH down 14.13% over the past 7 days. The crypto world was once in a state of bloodshed, a sight too tragic to bear.

This week, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States was $1.211 billion; the net outflow of Ethereum spot ETF in the United States was $500 million.

Market Forecast (November 24 - November 28):

The current RSI index is 34.42 (weak zone), the Fear and Greed index is 15 (the index is higher than last week, extreme fear zone), and the Altcoin Season index is 43 (neutral, higher than last week).

BTC core range: $85,000-89,000

ETH core range: $2,800-3,100

SOL Core Range: $128-156

Market Sentiment: The market is currently very fragile and has been declining in an uncontrollable manner. Any market news with even a slight negative tone can deliver a heavy blow to the market, which may drop to even lower positions at any time. This indicates that the market is fleeing due to the intensification of uncertainty regarding the “four-year cycle” theory and the U.S. economy/government, making the decision to “preserve principal.” This week's market decline is primarily caused by: U.S. employment data exceeding expectations, a reduced probability of interest rate cuts in December, BlackRock's sell-off, and AI continuing to thrive while draining liquidity, among other factors. In the short term, it is highly likely to be in a state of “moderate decline”; currently, the BTC price has reached the shutdown price of some miners, with a Strategy cost price of $74,080. Whether the market can stop falling, and whether we can see the scene of “Christmas Prosperity” again, will depend on the external economic data after the U.S. opens, the interest rate cut in December, and news of large institutions buying back.

For conservative investors: The current price offers better value for long-term allocation. It may be worth considering buying in small batches near key support levels to lower the average cost. This is not the market bottom, so there is no need to rush into a heavy investment all at once.

For active traders: Within the current clear range of fluctuations, consider taking a small long position near the support level and reducing your position or shorting near the resistance level. Be sure to set your stop-loss.

Understand now

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On November 18, mainstream crypto treasury (DAT) company mNAV fell below 1, including:

The mNAV (the ratio of enterprise value to the value of held BTC) of Strategy (MSTR) is currently reported at 0.937. The market capitalization of Strategy has fallen to 56 billion dollars, and it currently holds 649,870 bitcoins, valued at 59.9 billion dollars.

The mNAV of Metaplanet is currently reported at 0.912. The market capitalization of Metaplanet has dropped to 2.61 billion USD, with its current holding of 30,823 bitcoins, valued at 2.84 billion USD.

Bitmine (BMNR) ranks first in institutional holdings of Ethereum, currently holding approximately 3.51 million ETH, valued at about $10.63 billion, with a market capitalization falling to $8.81 billion, and mNAV currently reported at 0.83.

SharpLink (SBET) ranks second in institutional holdings of Ethereum, currently holding 860,000 ETH, valued at approximately $2.61 billion, with a market capitalization dropping to $2.02 billion, and mNAV currently reported at 0.84.

2. On November 18, the open-source AI platform Sentient announced that the registration for the airdrop qualification is now online. The deadline is November 29. In addition, details of the second season airdrop event will be announced soon.

3. On November 19, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Labor stated that the department plans to complete the missing weekly initial unemployment claims data from the government shutdown period by Thursday local time.

4. On November 20, Nvidia (NVDA.O) announced its Q3 revenue for fiscal year 2026 of $57 billion, compared to $35.082 billion in the same period last year, with market expectations at $54.923 billion. It also forecasts Q4 revenue for fiscal year 2026 at $65 billion, with market expectations at $61.6 billion. The growth rate of chip sales, which are at the core of the artificial intelligence boom, exceeded Wall Street's expectations, while also providing a strong revenue forecast for the quarter, leading investors to believe that the AI investment frenzy will continue. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated, “I do not see an AI bubble.” The market rebounded after Nvidia released its financial report, with Bitcoin rising to $91,500 and Ethereum climbing to $3,000. Nvidia's U.S. stock rose over 5% in after-hours trading, and Nasdaq futures opened up 1% on Thursday.

5. On November 20, the public sale of Monad (MON) tokens on the Coinbase platform raised $147.1 million, achieving 78.4% of the total target. This public sale offered 7.5% of the MON tokens at a unit price of 0.025 USDC, with an FDV of $2.5 billion, and will close on Sunday, November 23 at 10:00. According to data from the Polymarket website, the probability of the total amount raised by Monad's public sale reaching $300 million is currently reported at 84%, the probability of reaching $400 million is reported at 56%, while the probability of reaching $600 million is only 27%.

macroeconomics

1. For the week ending November 15, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States was 220,000, expected to be 230,000, which is lower than expected;

2. On November 20, the U.S. unemployment rate for September was 4.4%, expected to be 4.30%, higher than expected, previous value 4.30%;

3. On November 20, the U.S. adjusted non-farm payroll employment for September was 119,000, expected to be 50,000, and the previous value was revised from 22,000 to -4,000;

4. On November 21, according to the Federal Reserve's rate observer, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 28.5%.

ETF

According to statistics, from November 17 to November 21, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States was $1.217 billion; as of November 21, the total outflow of GBTC (Grayscale) was $24.987 billion, currently holding $14.105 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $66.239 billion. The total market value of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States is $112.02 billion.

Net outflow of Ethereum spot ETF in the US: $500 million.

Envision the future

Event Announcement

1. Bitcoin MENA will be held at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC) from December 8 to 9;

2. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held in Abu Dhabi from December 11 to 13.

Project Progress

1. Makinafi token MAK will be launched in ICO on November 25 at Legion;

2. The TGE date for the Meme Launchpad Bitdealernet token BIT is November 27.

3. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated at the SALT conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the final draft of the legislation for the crypto market structure is expected to be submitted to President Trump before Thanksgiving (November 27).

Important events

1. The EU will ban trading of the stablecoin A7A5 related to Russia starting from November 25.

2. On November 26 at 21:30, the United States will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 at ( million );

3. On November 26 at 23:00, the United States will release the year-on-year core PCE price index for October.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of the Hotcoin exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. Through “Weekly Insights” and “In-Depth Research Reports,” we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column “Hotcoin Select” (with dual screening by AI and experts) to identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers also engage with you face-to-face through live broadcasts to interpret hot topics and predict trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The volatility of the crypto market is significant, and investing itself carries risks. We strongly advise investors to invest based on a thorough understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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