Long DAT, short futures: a new strategy for basis arbitrage trading

Author: Chris Perkins, Source: Coindesk, Translation: Shaw Jinse Finance

The market is always looking for the next major trading opportunity. I believe that by 2026, trading strategies will undergo new changes, involving going long on Digital Asset Vault Companies (DAT) and shorting futures in traditional basis trading. While experienced market participants have already achieved positive returns through strategies like going long Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and shorting futures, this time, a new variant of basis trading will encompass DATs and expand to various cryptocurrency projects commonly called “altcoins.”

Digital Asset Vaults (DAT) experienced explosive growth in 2025. DATs are typically issued and sold by publicly listed companies, with proceeds used to purchase specific crypto assets. This approach aims to increase the number of tokens per share. For ordinary investors, DATs can be traded, custodized, and hedged like other stocks. This eliminates the operational complexity and regulatory uncertainty that traditional investors might face when managing native crypto assets. As a result, DATs are becoming a bridge between the crypto market and traditional finance.

The strength of DATs lies in their flexibility. These companies can employ various capital management and yield strategies aimed at increasing their net asset value (mNAV). By maximizing the number of tokens held per share, DATs strive to outperform their underlying token assets. Michael Saylor’s strategy is a successful example. Since purchasing Bitcoin in 2020 through September 2025, his stock price soared 22 times, while the accumulated Bitcoin increased nearly 10 times.

However, volatility is a double-edged sword. Recent market fluctuations have caused some DAT prices to decline, and their net asset values have also fallen. Although DAT structures are operationally simple and regulated clearly, their volatility makes them challenging for many investors. To date, most token futures trading has been limited by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), restricting hedging options.

The Missing Link: CFTC-Regulated Futures

In traditional markets, futures are contracts that lock in the future price of an asset. For centuries, futures have played a vital role in risk management, providing institutions with tools to hedge risk exposure, speculate on price movements, and scale efficiently. However, in the crypto space, regulated futures exist only for a small number of tokens, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The lack of comprehensive coverage in the crypto futures market is largely attributable to former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler. During his tenure, he insisted that most crypto assets are securities. Futures are derivatives of commodities, which would place them outside his jurisdiction. Consequently, Gensler suppressed the launch of crypto futures, depriving investors of an important risk management tool.

The world has changed. With the Trump administration actively promoting its agenda to make the U.S. the “global crypto capital,” the new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has publicly stated multiple times that “most crypto tokens are not securities.”

As regulatory barriers are lifted, futures are now a focus. These futures are not standalone products but gateways to broader market access. The SEC recently clarified that tokens with six months of futures trading history can more easily be listed as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), attracting institutional capital and gaining mainstream acceptance. As liquidity in crypto futures increases, strategies involving going long on DATs and shorting futures become feasible.

DAT Basis Trading

Basis trading involves buying an asset in the spot market while selling the same asset’s futures contract, aiming to profit from the price difference (“basis”) between the two. “Futures premium” refers to futures prices being higher than spot prices. In such market conditions, basis trading strategies are often profitable. DATs hold, pledge, and even re-pledge digital assets to generate real on-chain yields. Investors can gain exposure to the crypto and its yields by purchasing DAT shares. By shorting the crypto futures held by the DAT, investors can hedge against price fluctuations of these assets. The remaining factor is the price spread between the token futures and the DAT’s spot holdings. When the trading price of DAT is below its mNAV, or when the futures price of the token (or total return tokens including staking yields) exceeds the crypto spot price held by the DAT, investors can earn stable and relatively neutral returns. Although predicting the size of the basis is difficult, for altcoins, this discrepancy can be more pronounced than for other assets, potentially offering higher returns.

The advantages are clear. When mNAV rises and futures are in contango, DAT basis trading can yield substantial returns. However, like all strategies, there are risks and bearish scenarios. The most obvious risk is a sharp decline in asset net value, with losses in the stock portion not fully hedged by futures. Additionally, DATs trading below their mNAV may become acquisition targets. While acquisitions can restore mNAV to offset losses, acquirers might shift to other asset classes, leading to trade closures.

For risk-sensitive investors, ETFs aimed at maintaining stable mNAV might be preferable over DATs when executing regulated basis trades. However, broader alternative ETFs and futures products for underlying assets are just beginning to launch. During this period, DATs serve as a crucial bridge, helping traditional investors understand the possibilities of crypto investment normalization.

As regulated futures proliferate across various cryptocurrencies, strategies of going long on DATs and shorting futures could become Wall Street’s ideal way to profit from crypto, without touching wallets or enduring the extreme volatility inherent in the asset class. I believe that by 2026, this will be the top trading strategy of the year.