Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: Re-testing the "golden cross pattern" bull run, returning to 116,000 USD is key.

Bitcoin is currently retesting a strong bullish technical signal - the “golden cross pattern”. This pattern occurs when the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA and has historically indicated significant price pump cycles for Bitcoin, such as the 2,200% rise in 2017 and the 1,190% rise in 2020. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $110,000. Analysts believe that whether it can maintain this key psychological and technical level will determine whether Bitcoin can trigger a new round of strong rise, or indicate the end of the current market cycle.

Technical Analysis: Golden Cross Pattern and Key Support Levels

(Source: TradingView)

Bitcoin is at a critical moment in its technical structure, and the golden cross pattern retest provides a strong bullish signal, but it also comes with significant risks.

· Golden cross pattern retest: The “golden cross pattern” where the 50-day MA crosses the 200-day MA is currently undergoing a retest. Analyst Mister Crypto believes that as long as Bitcoin can stay above $110,000, the current setup is “exceptionally strong” and may trigger a new round of strong pump.

· Death line of the cycle: Crypto analyst Mac warns that if Bitcoin price falls below 110,000 USD, this could signal the end of the current market cycle.

· Short-term rebound signal: Mac points out that the 4-hour Money Flow Index (MFI) is in a severely oversold condition, indicating a potential rebound in the short term, but a significant rise is not expected immediately.

Resistance and Support: Returning to $116,000 is the primary task

Bitcoin price has recently rebounded to over 113,500 USD after dropping below 110,000 USD, but the pump path faces multiple obstacles.

Immediate resistance: Bitcoin is currently trading below $116,000, while being suppressed by the 100-hour simple moving average and a bearish trend line.

• First major resistance: located around $116,250.
• Upward target: If it can break through 118,000 USD, the next testing target will be the trendline resistance at 119,500 USD.

Important support: If the price fails to hold above $116,000, it may face a new decline.

• Main support: located at $113,500.
• Key support cluster: followed by 112,500 and 110,500.

External Shocks and Market Volatility

The recent market correction is not limited to cryptocurrencies but is influenced by both macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

· Macroeconomic pullback: Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee pointed out that the drop last Friday, after the market had risen 36% since April, was the largest decline in six months.

· Volatility Signal: The VIX volatility index soared by 1.29%, marking the 51st largest increase in history. Tom Lee believes that such a spike in volatility often indicates the formation of a short-term market bottom.

· Trade war escalation: Former US President Trump announced that starting from November 1, a 100% tariff will be imposed on all imports from China. This move is in response to China implementing new export restrictions on rare earth minerals. China controls about 70% of the global supply of rare earths, and the new regulation requires products containing Chinese rare earth components to obtain export licenses, which will take effect on December 1.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently retesting the historically significant “golden cross pattern” bullish formation, which brings strong hope to the market. However, amid escalating global trade tensions, especially the macro uncertainty caused by US-China tariffs and rare earth export restrictions, it is crucial for Bitcoin to successfully hold the support level of $110,000. The current technical setup and oversold indicators suggest a potential rebound in the short term, but only a decisive breakthrough above the resistance level of $116,000 and higher can confirm the continuation of the bull market. Under the shadow of the macro economy, whether Bitcoin can translate the hope of the golden cross into a substantial price leap, as historical data shows, remains the focus of the market.

This article is news information and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.