Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count Charts Path Toward $160K as Final Impulse Unfolds

Matthew Dixon’s Elliott Wave analysis traces Bitcoin’s full price cycle from 2011 to 2025, mapping impulsive and corrective phases with precision.

The analysis identifies Bitcoin’s current position in Wave (V), projecting a final bullish impulse targeting between $130,000 and $160,000.

Previous cycles in Dixon’s count show Bitcoin’s repeated pattern of deep corrections followed by explosive rallies consistent with Elliott Wave principles.

Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count analysis by veteran financial trader Matthew Dixon outlines Bitcoin’s entire price structure from 2011 to 2025, projecting a potential peak between $130,000 and $160,000 as the final phase progresses.

Early Phases of Bitcoin’s Macro Elliott Wave Structure

According to Matthew Dixon, the first major cycle, identified as Wave (I), began in 2011 around the $2–$3 range and ended near $1,100 in late 2013. This period was defined by explosive price action and limited market depth, marking Bitcoin’s initial expansion phase. Liquidity was thin, yet price momentum was extraordinary, leading to one of the earliest parabolic surges in digital asset history.

The following corrective stage, labeled Wave (II), occurred during 2014–2015, bringing Bitcoin down to approximately $150. Dixon described this decline as an 85% retracement, which aligns with the early impulsive corrections typical in developing markets. It represented a prolonged bear market where sentiment weakened before the next growth phase began.

Wave (III) unfolded between 2015 and late 2017, starting from around $150 and peaking at nearly $19,800. This stage captured mass retail participation, fueled by the rise of initial coin offerings and broad market adoption. Volume growth accelerated rapidly, defining it as the strongest impulsive wave in the macro structure.

Consolidation and the Foundation for a New Cycle

The corrective phase labeled Wave (IV) spanned from 2018 to 2020. During this stage, Bitcoin entered a period of consolidation, retracing close to the 0.85 Fibonacci level of the previous advance. Prices bottomed near $3,000, setting the groundwork for the next bullish cycle.

Dixon’s Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count indicates that this consolidation acted as a reset before renewed expansion. The period also coincided with technological developments and market maturity that supported stronger structural growth. Trading volumes stabilized, and volatility gradually normalized, creating a foundation for a long-term advance.

This structure mirrors classic Elliott Wave principles, where a deep corrective move often precedes the final impulsive phase. By maintaining the wave integrity, Bitcoin’s broader pattern continued to align with long-term cyclical behavior observed across major asset classes.

Ongoing Wave (V) and Potential Price Targets

Matthew Dixon’s recent post on X (@mdtrade) detailed the ongoing Wave (V), beginning at the March 2020 COVID crash low near $3,800. The sub-waves within this cycle include an initial rally to $64,000 in April 2021, followed by a mid-year correction to around $29,000.

The next stage saw Bitcoin reach its all-time high of roughly $69,000 in November 2021 before entering a deep correction to about $15,000 in late 2022 and early 2023. This decline marked the fourth sub-wave within the ongoing structure, setting the stage for what Dixon identifies as the final impulsive movement.

According to his projection, Bitcoin’s final push under Wave (V) could extend toward the $130,000–$160,000 range, depending on Fibonacci extensions. The analysis suggests Bitcoin may be in the concluding stages of a long-term five-wave cycle that began more than a decade ago, reaffirming the structured rhythm observed in its historical price behavior.

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