JPMorgan sees Bitcoin climbing to $165,000 by year-end, citing gold valuation gap

• JPMorgan says Bitcoin undervalued vs gold, sets $165K year-end target.
• Bitcoin ETF inflows show retail investors driving the “debasement trade.”
• Rising gold prices make Bitcoin more attractive, says JPMorgan analysts.

Bitcoin could rally to $165,000 by the end of 2025, according to analysts at JPMorgan, who argue the cryptocurrency remains undervalued relative to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis.

The projection comes as bitcoin hovers near $119,000, bolstered by growing investor demand for alternative stores of value amid global economic and political uncertainty.

Bitcoin valuation relative to gold

In a report released Wednesday, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has fallen below 2.0, meaning bitcoin now consumes about 1.85 times more risk capital than gold.

On that basis, they estimate bitcoin’s $2.3 trillion market capitalization would need to rise by roughly 42% — translating into a price of about $165,000 — to align with the $6 trillion invested privately in gold through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), bars, and coins.

The analysis marks a notable shift compared with the end of 2024, when JPMorgan calculated bitcoin was $36,000 overvalued relative to gold. Now, they suggest it is undervalued by approximately $46,000.

“This mechanical exercise thus could imply significant upside for bitcoin,” the analysts wrote.

The latest outlook builds on an earlier forecast from August, when the bank projected a year-end bitcoin price of $126,000.

Since then, rising gold prices have improved bitcoin’s relative attractiveness, prompting JPMorgan to revise its implied target upward.

The rise of the “debasement trade”

JPMorgan’s analysts framed the bullish scenario within what they call the “debasement trade,” a growing movement among investors seeking protection against inflation, government deficits, geopolitical risks, and declining trust in fiat currencies.

Both bitcoin and gold have benefitted from this trend, with inflows into ETFs tracking the two assets rising significantly over the past year.

According to the report, retail investors have been the driving force behind the surge, particularly in bitcoin ETFs. Inflows into spot bitcoin funds accelerated in the first half of 2025, before easing somewhat in August. At the same time, gold ETFs began attracting stronger demand, narrowing the gap in cumulative inflows between the two asset classes.

The analysts noted that while institutional investors have participated through CME futures contracts, positioning in futures has been weaker compared with ETF inflows, highlighting the retail tilt of the debasement trade.

A bullish consensus emerging

Bitcoin’s potential upside, as highlighted by JPMorgan, adds to a broader wave of bullish calls heading into the final quarter of the year.

Several other analysts and firms have floated forecasts of bitcoin reaching $200,000, underscoring heightened optimism around the asset.

At present, bitcoin is trading near $119,000, leaving room for significant gains if JPMorgan’s $165,000 target materializes.

The upward revision reflects both relative valuation dynamics with gold and the broader macro environment driving demand for non-traditional stores of value.

Whether bitcoin achieves JPMorgan’s implied valuation will depend on the persistence of investor appetite for the debasement trade and its ability to compete with gold for capital allocation.

For now, the report highlights bitcoin’s evolving role alongside precious metals as a key hedge against economic and political risks.

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