Bitcoin’s Next Rally Delayed to 2026, Says Former Goldman Sachs Strategist

Bitcoin may no longer follow four year halving cycles, instead tracking broader economic momentum shifts.

Prolonged sub-50 ISM readings have weighed on Bitcoin, delaying expansionary behavior across risk assets.

Extended U.S. Treasury maturities may have stretched market liquidity cycles, shifting Bitcoin’s peak to 2026.

Raoul Pal, former Goldman Sachs executive and now macro analyst, says the next major Bitcoin rally may arrive later than many the market expect. Instead of a peak in 2025, as widely assumed, he now points to mid 2026

His reasoning centers on a change in the global economic rhythm, which he argues has extended Bitcoin’s cycle beyond its familiar four year pattern. His comments counter the long standing belief that halving events act as Bitcoin’s primary clock. According to Pal, the cryptocurrency’s behavior has aligned more closely with broader business cycles than programmed supply cuts.

ISM Weakness

Pal references the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index as his key gauge. The index measures factory activity and has remained below 50 for most of the past three years. That extended contraction, he says, has pressured risk assets, including Bitcoin

Historically, a rise above the 50 levels is the start of expansion. However, that shift has yet to occur. As a result, investors have continued to face muted returns despite intermittent surges.

U.S. Debt Policy

Another point he notes involves changes to the U.S. Treasury issuance. Between 2021 and 2022, average maturities were extended from four years to five. That extension, Pal argues, slowed the pace of liquidity rotations across global markets

According to his view, that policy effectively stretched the broader economic cycle by an additional year. Therefore, Bitcoin appears to be following that new cadence. Its price behavior has reflected the same delay seen across other speculative assets.

Peak in the Second Quarter of 2026

Pal believes the global economy has not yet moved into a true expansionary phase. Market strength, he says, has appeared in short bursts rather than sustained trends. He now places the likeliest peak for Bitcoin in the second quarter of 2026

That prediction pushes expectations beyond the typical 18-month post-halving window promoted by past cycles. He says patience is essential for the market in tracking digital asset flows. While he maintains that Bitcoin remains cyclical, he stresses that the clock appears reset rather than broken.

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