Analysts point out that Bitcoin is hovering near the “crucial long-term support line,” and has been holding on for over 3 weeks, causing the market’s bulls to be on edge. However, the publicly traded company Strategy (MSTR), the largest holder of Bitcoin globally, has already broken through this “safety line,” sending a strong bearish signal to the crypto market.
Senior CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole explained that this “safety line” is the extremely critical “100-week simple moving average (100-week SMA)” in technical analysis, which mainly reflects the average cost over the past two years and is used by major market technicians to identify major trend reversals, long-term support, or confirm crashes.
From the trend perspective, the 100-week moving average has provided strong support for three consecutive weeks, halting Bitcoin’s sharp decline from its all-time high of $126,000.
Godbole described this moving average as a “safety net” that successfully caught Bitcoin during its price fall.
If the price can rebound from this level, the market will expect this support to act as a “springboard,” becoming the starting point for a new wave of recovery; conversely, if the price breaks below the 100-week SMA, it could lead to shaken confidence among holders, increased selling pressure, and further dominance by the bears, potentially expanding the downward trend.
Worryingly, the stock price trend of Strategy (MSTR) seems to have already foreshadowed the worst-case scenario. See the trend comparison below:
MSTR’s stock price fell below the 100-week SMA as early as early November when it dropped to $220, and then selling pressure continued to grow, with the stock price plunging to $160, a decline of over 60% from this year’s high of $457.
For Bitcoin bulls, this is a warning that cannot be ignored, because MSTR has historically led Bitcoin’s trend multiple times. Earlier, when MSTR broke below the same long-term trend indicator—the 50-week SMA—it also preempted a weakening of Bitcoin’s subsequent market.
The current situation is very clear: Bitcoin bulls must do everything possible to defend the 100-week SMA.
Holding this line could mark the start of a desperate counterattack; failing to do so might see Bitcoin follow in MSTR’s footsteps, falling into an even deeper decline.
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