Solana DEX劇變，主动做市AMM占50%交易量，HumidiFi以65%领先。独立DEX已死，被动AMM需整合发行平台才能活。Raydium和Orca处结构性劣势，以10-14倍P/S交易但收入下滑。
主动 vs Passive AMM 的生死分界线
Solana DEX的主导格局将按资产成熟度分化。主动做市AMM将持续主导短尾高流动性市场，包括SOL-USDC和SOL-USDT等主要交易对，而被动AMM将日益专注于长尾资产和新代币发行。这种分化源于技术差异：主动做市AMM通过预言机更新每秒多次调整报价，提供比被动AMM更窄的价差，成功避开毒性流量。
两类AMM的致胜策略截然不同：它们均可受益于垂直整合，但方向相反。被动AMM正通过代币发行平台（如Pump-PumpSwap、MetaDAO-Futarchy AMM）贴近用户，而主动做市AMM则向下游延伸，专注于交易落地服务（如HumidiFi-Nozomi）。这种战略分化决定了未来的赢家和输家。
标记价差分析显示，主动做市AMM的30秒盈亏为正，成功避开毒性流量并从良性用户那里捕获价差。相较之下，被动AMM的标记价差表现显著较差。这证明被动AMM上SOL-美元交易量的大部分并非「有机」用户流量，而是针对过时报价的套利。被动AMM的曲线将始终落后于主动做市AMM中快速变动的参考价格。
观察传统AMM的交易量构成，Orca仍有超过50%的交易量来自SOL-稳定币交易对。Meteora和Raydium近几个月的SOL-稳定币交易量也有所上升，但这些交易量中至少85%可归因于MEV机器人活动。在缺乏激励的情况下，未来几个月，传统AMM上用于高流动性交易对的LP资本自然会收缩。
HumidiFi 如何统治主动做市AMM
HumidiFi在主动做市AMM类别中领先，占约65%的市场份额，其大部分交易量集中在SOL-USDC（83.3%）和SOL-USDT（14.4%）交易对。其预言机更新指令成本在同类中最优，相对于SolFi、Tessera等同行以及被动AMM，展现出更出色的标记价差表现。
HumidiFi背后的核心工程团队是Temporal，这是Solana上技术实力最强的团队之一。Temporal也在基础设施层面运营其他产品，包括Nozomi（交易落地服务）和Harmonic（旨在与Jito竞争的区域区块建设系统）。HumidiFi的共同创办人Kevin Pang曾在Jump、Paradigm和Symbolic Capital Partners工作，带来了不可或缺的高频交易专业知识。
根据链上数据估算，HumidiFi自2025年6月成立至12月累计交易收入约410万美元，日均毛收入约2.4万美元。在减去每天9,000至10,000美元的预言机更新费用后，隐含净收入约为每天1.4万至1.5万美元。值得注意的是，HumidiFi的周均SOL-美元交易量超过90亿美元，超过了币安，成为第一大交易场所。
HumidiFi三大技术优势
预言机优化极致：更新指令从300+CU降至47CU，交易总成本<500CU为业界最低
Temporal垂直整合：受益于同团队的Nozomi交易落地服务，提升排序优势
高频更新能力：日均600万次预言机更新（每秒约70次），紧贴市场价格
Raydium和Orca的结构性死亡螺旋
独立的被动AMM模式已经过时。未来的赢家型「被动AMM」将不再被视为纯粹的AMM，而是会成为垂直整合了AMM作为盈利层的代币发行平台。不属于上述任何一类的Solana DEX将面临结构性增长下滑。既非主动做市AMM也非垂直整合发行平台的协议（最显著的是Raydium和Orca）处于结构性劣势。
2025年3月，Pump推出PumpSwap AMM切断Raydium的毕业代币流后，Raydium市场份额自此不断下降。Raydium以LaunchLab作为回应，这是一个贴牌解决方案。然而，Pump仍保持着主导地位，持续占据>90%的市场份额。估值分析显示，RAY和ORCA分别以10倍和14倍P/S交易，而收入持续下降。
相较之下，PUMP和MET的交易价格分别约为4倍和6倍P/S。尽管Raydium是可投资代币且进行回购，但其相对于同类的高倍数与其成长前景存在根本性背离。Orca面临着与Raydium类似的结构性问题。在缺乏明确结构性催化剂的情况下，很难证明这一趋势会逆转。
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