Moving Average (MA) Indicator Detailed Explanation: Mastering the Core Uses of SMA and EMA, Golden Cross and Death Cross, and Trend Judgment SMA and EMA: The Difference in Weighting Determines Response Speed The Simple Moving Average (Simple Moving Average, SMA) is the purest form of moving average. Its calculation method is very intuitive: sum the closing prices over a specific period (e.g., 20 days), then divide by the number of days to get an arithmetic mean. Each day, the latest price data is included in the calculation, while the data from the earliest day is removed, allowing the average line to "move" over time. The characteristic of SMA is that it assigns equal weight to each day's price data within the calculation period. This makes SMA excellent for depicting long-term, stable trends, with high smoothing and less susceptibility to short-term price spikes. However, the "fair treatment" of SMA also brings its biggest drawback—lagging. Because it treats prices from a month ago and yesterday equally, it responds slowly to recent market sentiment changes. To address this issue, the Exponential Moving Average (Exponential Moving Average, EMA) was developed. EMA is an optimized evolution of SMA, with a more complex calculation method that gives higher weight to recent price data. This means EMA is more sensitive to the latest price changes and can reflect market trend shifts more quickly than SMA. When early trend signals need to be captured or analysis is conducted in volatile markets, EMA is often the preferred choice. Trend Definition and Crossover Signals: From Compass to Trading Triggers The most core application of moving averages is in trend identification and dynamic support/resistance. When prices stay above the moving average and the MA itself is sloping upward, the market is defined as being in an uptrend. Conversely, when prices are below the MA and the MA slopes downward, it indicates a downtrend. In an uptrend, the moving average (especially the mid- to long-term 50, 100, or 200-period MA) often acts as a dynamic support level, where price pullbacks tend to find buying support. In a downtrend, it serves as a dynamic resistance level. Based on this, a crossover system composed of two moving averages with different periods provides clearer trading signals. The most famous are the "Golden Cross" and "Death Cross." When a short-term MA (e.g., 50-period) crosses above a long-term MA (e.g., 200-period) from below, it forms a Golden Cross, which is generally regarded as a medium- to long-term bullish signal, indicating that the market may enter a bull phase. Conversely, when the short-term MA crosses below the long-term MA from above, it forms a Death Cross, a strong medium- to long-term bearish signal warning of a bear market. Although moving averages are powerful tools, their limitations are also significant. First, they are lagging indicators, always following the price, used to confirm trends rather than predict their start. Second, in sideways, choppy markets without a clear direction, moving averages tend to flatten and cross the price frequently, generating many invalid signals and risking losses. Therefore, no "magical" moving average can be suitable for all market conditions. The rational approach is to use them as a "compass" to define the macro market background, and within a clear trend confirmed by MA, combine oscillators like KDJ to find specific, trend-following trading opportunities, thus building a logical and higher-probability trading framework. $BTC

Moving Average (MA) Indicator Detailed Explanation: Mastering the Core Uses of SMA and EMA, Golden Cross and Death Cross, and Trend Judgment SMA and EMA: Differences in Weighting Determine Response Speed The Simple Moving Average (Simple Moving Average, SMA) is the purest form of moving average. Its calculation method is very intuitive: sum the closing prices over a specific period (e.g., 20 days), then divide by the number of days to get an arithmetic mean. Each day, the latest price data is included in the calculation, while the data from the earliest day is removed, allowing the average line to "move" over time. The characteristic of SMA is that it assigns equal weight to each day's price data within the calculation period. This makes SMA excellent for depicting long-term, stable trends, with high smoothing and less susceptibility to short-term price spikes. However, the "fair treatment" of SMA also brings its biggest drawback—lagging. Because it treats prices from a month ago and yesterday equally, it responds slowly to recent market sentiment changes. To address this issue, the Exponential Moving Average (Exponential Moving Average, EMA) was developed. EMA is an optimized evolution of SMA, with a more complex calculation method that gives higher weight to recent price data. This means EMA is more sensitive to the latest price movements and can reflect market trend changes more quickly than SMA. When early trend signals need to be captured or analysis is conducted in volatile markets, EMA is often the preferred choice. Trend Definition and Crossover Signals: From Compass to Trading Trigger The most core application of moving averages is in trend identification and dynamic support/resistance. When prices stay above the moving average and the MA itself is sloping upward, the market is defined as in an uptrend. Conversely, when prices are below the MA and it slopes downward, it is a downtrend. In an uptrend, the moving average (especially mid- to long-term 50, 100, or 200-period MAs) often acts as a dynamic support level, where price pullbacks tend to find buying support. In a downtrend, it serves as a dynamic resistance level. Based on this, a crossover system composed of two moving averages of different periods provides clearer trading signals. The most famous are the "Golden Cross" and "Death Cross." When a short-term MA (e.g., 50-period) crosses above a long-term MA (e.g., 200-period) from below, it forms a Golden Cross, which is generally regarded as a medium- to long-term bullish signal, indicating that the market may enter a bull phase. Conversely, when the short-term MA crosses below the long-term MA from above, it forms a Death Cross, a strong medium- to long-term bearish signal warning of a coming bear market. Although moving averages are powerful tools, their limitations are also significant. First, they are lagging indicators, always following the price, used to confirm trends rather than predict their start. Second, in sideways, choppy markets without a clear direction, moving averages tend to flatten and cross the price frequently, generating many invalid signals and risking losses. Therefore, no "magical" moving average can be suitable for all market conditions. The rational approach is to use them as a "compass" to define the macro market background, and within a clear trend confirmed by MAs, combine oscillators like KDJ to find specific, trend-following trading opportunities, thus building a logical and higher-probability trading framework. $BTC

If only I could send a voice message right now. Expressing the current mood is necessary. US stocks opened lower yesterday. Bitcoin and Ethereum followed suit. Gold hit a new high again. The commodities market danced along with gold. In contrast, the vibrant state of the crypto world is no longer what it used to be. Altcoins generally hit new lows consecutively. Has this been a bull market for years? Those who don’t know might think it’s been a continuous bear market. Bitcoin and Ethereum in the crypto space are still in the altcoin slump, similar to the state of US stocks and those junk stocks. In the crypto world, only Bitcoin is relatively strong, while altcoins spiral downward. In the US stock market, only the Seven Fairy Stocks are relatively strong, while junk stocks spiral downward. Maybe now we can understand? In the crypto world, everything except Bitcoin is garbage. In the US stock market, everything except Bitcoin is garbage. I originally thought that when the storm came, pigs would fly! But there are too many pigs, so the wind selectively blows only a few. Regarding Bitcoin and Ethereum trends: Although Bitcoin has been declining continuously, its monthly support line has not been broken. Currently, the outlook is still bullish. If the monthly support breaks, we should prepare for a new round of sharp decline. Ethereum moves in sync with Bitcoin. Ethereum’s fluctuations have always been larger than Bitcoin’s. The monthly support line for Bitcoin is intact, but Ethereum has broken it! The trend will definitely follow Bitcoin’s lead. Summary: For now, use Bitcoin’s monthly line as support. Still bullish. $BTC $ETH