Bitcoin hash rate has experienced a nearly 10-fold surge since 2020, but recently it has entered a clear correction phase. In the three months following the October peak, network hash rate has declined by about 15%. Key data points clearly illustrate the situation: from approximately 1.1 ZH/s in October, it has dropped straight down to 977 EH/s, with miners surrendering for nearly 60 days. Glassnode's Hash Ribbon indicator reversed on November 29, which assesses miners' health by comparing short-term and long-term hash rate trends. The current signal is not optimistic. Short-term supply pressure on the network is building up, and it is expected that on January 22, Bitcoin mining difficulty will see its seventh adjustment downward in the past eight adjustments, decreasing to around 139T. From the profitability perspective, the situation is even more severe. According to JPMorgan's data, by December 2025, the Bitcoin network hash rate is expected to decrease by about 3% month-over-month to 1045 EH/s. This suggests that miner competition has somewhat eased, but this relief is driven by miners passively exiting the market. The average daily block reward income per EH/s has fallen to $38,700, down 7% MoM and a staggering 32% YoY, hitting a new all-time low. This marks the fifth consecutive month of declining profitability.

BTC has fallen 36% from its all-time high, and discussions about a bear market are increasing in the community. However, a seasoned trader pointed out that simply looking at the percentage decline doesn't hold much significance; what truly matters is the strength and timing of the subsequent rebound. He emphasized that market reversal signals should be captured in advance, rather than reacting only after the price has been halved. The key is how to judge—his approach is to observe the correlation between BTC and USDT, especially using the USDT.D indicator as a "reverse reference." Currently, there is a particularly important time window: around January 20. This point in time could determine whether BTC forms a short-term rebound peak or a bottom, and the trend in the following weeks will essentially set the tone. In other words, the performance on January 20 may influence the overall market pattern for 2026. Here's a detail worth noting: even if BTC rebounds to 110,000 in the short term, if the rebound quality is poor—that is, lacking enthusiasm and sustainability—it will only be a fleeting recovery. The true bear market signals might be hidden in the details of this rebound. Therefore, rather than fixating on the percentage decline, it's better to focus on the actual strength of the rebound and seize key timing points. In simple terms: BTC's performance around January 20 could be the watershed for the next phase of the market.

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