Merry Christmas from snowy Alps🎄
A reminder to slow down, spend time with family, and reset before building again.
Wishing you calm charts and no liquidations today!

.@Polymarket is showing signs of structural acceleration:
1. Trading Volume
Daily volume consistently ranges between $100M–$200M, showing stable participation and a healthy baseline of activity.
Liquidity is becoming more stable and less dependent on short-term spikes.
2. Open Interest (the best metric)
During the 2024 U.S. election cycle, OI reached an all-time high of $510M.
Current data shows OI climbing again (~$250M) — meaning a growing amount of capital is staying inside markets rather than rotating out quickly.
Participants are holding positions longer, signaling stronger conviction and

Starting today, we’ll also cover high-confidence sports markets each week.
One of our analysts has years of experience breaking down UFC matchups — and with prediction markets actively pricing these events every week, it makes sense to bring that edge here as well.
Here’s today’s read on @MerabDvalishvil vs @PetrYanUFC, based on both tape study and current market expectations across @Polymarket 🧵
So Monolith bet on @MerabDvalishvil today.
— Dvalishvili is close to making his fourth title defense within a single year, which would set a new @ufc record.
— Yan has rebuilt his form after a losing

Help me fit the youngest billionaire in my header.

Bet on @MerabDvalishvil today.
Dvalishvili is operating at full speed and is close to making his fourth title defense within a single year, which would set a new @ufc record.
@PetrYanUFC, although back in solid form after a losing streak, appears to be past his competitive peak. He’ll provide resistance, but he’s unlikely to withstand Merab’s pace over five rounds.
Merab also has higher chances of winning at @Polymarket.
Key reasons:
1/ Their striking level is roughly equal (this is not a classic “wrestler vs striker” matchup).
2/ Merab’s freestyle wrestling is simply on another level.
3/ Thei

Funding turning negative across BTC, ETH, SOL, and other majors.
Positioning is clearly moving to the short side.
In the past, similar funding setups have often marked approaching reversals.

Went to pray for ETH and the alts.
Adding new layers of support to the charts.

The retention rate on @Polymarket remains unmatched.
~394k unique wallets participated during the 2024 elections, and nearly 26% are still active a year later.
For context, DEX retention is around ~7%, and that number likely includes a lot of "dead" platforms, which drags the average down.
But even the strongest perp DEXs don’t get close: Hyperliquid’s 6-Month Retention (Top Users) was about 20%.
Polymarket is above that.
November is on pace for another $4B+ month volume if the current run rate holds.
That's basically matching the crazy October/November 2024 levels when everything went parabol

Another high-visibility deal in a week full of announcements:
@Polymarket just secured a landmark partnership with the @ufc.
While other platforms can still list UFC-related markets, direct collaboration gives Polymarket clear structural advantages:
• access to official data
• deeper integrations
• native promotion inside UFC’s ecosystem
And when Polymarket logo shows up during their favorite UFC fight, which platform do they choose?
Plus, the Times Square placement signals a push toward mainstream distribution.
PM are moving from a niche product to a widely accessible information layer.
With

Seems like prediction markets found their PMF and going mainstream.
Also, activity is heating up due to farming activity.

Expected way more than that, but it is what it is.
Keep clicking $MEGA.

Expected way more than that, but it is what it is.
Keep clicking.

Gm, research mode on.
More alpha on $POLY coming soon.

Our fund is in the game too. Thanks @monad, BUT:
At first glance, Monad still looks like “just another chain.” Expectations are modest, even if the developer community around it seems interesting.
The massive airdrop creates a high chance of a straight dump at $MON TGE. What happens next will depend entirely on whether strong projects emerge on Monad and can prove real traction.
If that happens, we’ll cover the ecosystem in detail — with research on the true alpha opportunities inside.
For now: cautious, and watching closely.

Our honest take on @megaeth_labs sale:
- L2 tokens have been a flop narrative. Nearly every Ethereum L2 token has been in down-only mode. Even $LINEA from ConsenSys followed the same pattern, trading at only a ~$2B FDV. MegaETH, however, introduces unique features that deserve a closer look.
- Sequencer Rotation + Proximity Market are the two most important pieces of MegaETH’s core infrastructure. $MEGA demand directly scales with network activity — more usage, more $MEGA required.
- Mainet is set for December 2025, however, it claims to be the fastest, real-time blockchain with: 100,000+ TPS,

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