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Bitcoin Fails to Break $70,000 Multiple Times, Weak Liquidity Suppresses Rebound
On-chain data analysis platform Glassnode states that since early February, every attempt by Bitcoin to re-establish above the $70,000 threshold has been met with a pullback due to insufficient demand. Data shows that a net realized profit outflow of only about $5 million per hour could trigger a price decline.
In contrast, during the market sentiment peak in Q3 2025, profit-taking per hour reached $200 million to $350 million, yet prices still maintained an upward trend, indicating stronger buying support at that

Currently, the price of $BTC is $66,940.
The holding cost of $MSTR is $76,027.
The average holding cost for Bitcoin spot ETFs is $83,976.
BlackRock $IBIT investors' average holding cost is $83,633.
Grayscale $GBTC + BTC investors' average holding cost is $81,338.
Fidelity $FBTC investors' average holding cost is $73,761.
Bitcoin miners are gradually shutting down starting at $85,000.

Bitcoin has been declining for five consecutive months. This has only happened once before, in early 2018—2019, but after that, Bitcoin rose for five months straight. Do you think this time history will repeat itself?
If the crypto market is going to rise, we’ll have to wait until Powell steps down and Wob takes over to start reducing the balance sheet, which will gradually lead to a rise. This is expected to happen around July to August, meaning we still have to wait 4 to 5 months.

#BTC
Buy near 67200
Stop loss: 66000
Take profit: 68800, 69800
#ETH
Buy orders around 1920 look bullish
Stop loss: 1850
Take profit: around 1990
#SOL
83 long
Stop loss: 80
Take profit: 86
Short positions wait until the price goes up. Currently, it's a sideways trend, and I even have a bullish outlook. Under this expectation, I don't have the habit of chasing shorts.

Currently, there is no negative news. I believe the daily chart is more likely to fluctuate or rally than to break down. About a week ago, I predicted a second test of 1800 on Twitter and here, but the bears are weaker than I expected, only reaching around 1900.
The market is always right. If you're wrong, you need to adjust promptly. There are no invincible generals. Don't let the profit and loss of one or two trades affect the entire system. Take it slow.

As Bitcoin's market cap continues to grow, the upward surge in each bull market is actually decreasing, and the space for bear market corrections will also be relatively smaller, but it will likely still exceed 50% or more.
If it drops to 50,000, that's roughly a 60% decline. If it reaches this level or falls below it, gradually accumulating in stages should be considered a relatively bottoming area.
Currently, both in terms of time and space, there's not enough room, so there's no need to rush. Just be patient and wait.

Bitcoin's recent drop also seems very "deliberate." Comparing the trends of Nasdaq and Bitcoin, they were mostly synchronized for a long period, but this round of decline, Bitcoin clearly dropped more and faster. This sharp decline doesn't resemble natural selling; it looks more like an attempt to quickly reach a certain goal: to trigger a short squeeze and force people to cut losses.
From the peak, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30%, and the underlying selling pressure might be between 150,000 and 300,000 coins. Based on an 80,000 cost basis, that's about $24 billion in funds, which is beyond what

Foreign markets are all taking off, hopefully Old A doesn't keep thinking about controlling the rhythm and suppressing the index today. In the last week before the New Year, a strong upward push would boost investor spending during the Spring Festival~
Last Friday's post-market expectation was to see a rebound this week and observe its strength.

Next Meeting at the White House on Stablecoin Interest Issues
Date: February 10, 2026 (Tuesday)
Format: Staff-level practical meeting (same as before)
Significant change: This time, representatives from the bank headquarters will attend in person
Joint Participants: Cryptocurrency Industry Association
The White House is pressuring both parties to come up with a compromise plan by the end of February.

Not FUD, rational analysis #BTC bottom price
This round of the bull market:
Bitcoin's highest was $126,119, now $65,000, a decline of 48%
Based on the previous four bull markets' decline estimates, if this decline is 70%, then the optimal bottom for BTC would be around $38,000.
BTC at $38,000 may seem hopeless,
but it is the best time to enter. I personally think it's very reasonable. What does everyone else think?

Currently, BTC and ETH haven't accelerated their decline nor increased volume, so this wave hasn't bottomed out yet. It's a slow grind. The key levels are 693 (most likely won't hold), 639–668 (hopeful), 610, 581, and other critical points.

Last week, the market was hit by multiple negative news, severely damaging investor confidence. Among them, Microsoft's earnings report was disappointing, raising concerns about the outlook for AI spending. The company's reported revenue growth for Azure cloud computing business was only slightly above expectations, causing its stock price to plummet by 10%.
At the same time, the market expects Powell to push for rate cuts while also shifting towards tightening the balance sheet policy, which is seen as more hawkish.
The news that Powell was nominated by Trump triggered a sharp drop in gol

Bitcoin's attempt to stabilize as demand for put options used to hedge downside risk has eased somewhat, but the concentration of open interest at specific strike prices indicates that market tension has not fully dissipated. According to Deribit data, the highest concentration of put options shows that buyers are providing support around $75,000, making it a key support level. The token briefly dropped to $74,541 on Monday before rebounding. The next key support level is at $70,000.

There is one key point left: money will chase the rally. After that, more people will come in, such as ETF, futures, and various tracking products, and funds will pour in. This creates an inertia where the more it rises, the more people buy.
Therefore, the upward phase usually has a strong logic, demand, and funds chasing the rally, gradually pushing the price higher.
So why does it crash overnight? Many people have a very superficial understanding of this. The key point is not how bad the news about gold and silver is, but because the market is too crowded.

Therefore, the continuous plunge of Bitcoin is taking place against this dual background:
On one hand, Microsoft's earnings report triggered concerns about the growth logic and valuation of tech stocks, with selling sentiment spreading from the stock market to Bitcoin, which has similar financial attributes;
On the other hand, the sudden collapse of gold further worsened the global market's risk appetite, prompting investors to sell various risk assets including Bitcoin to seek liquidity safety.

Resistance: $84,200. A rebound to this level faces pressure, which is a selling point.
Support: $81,100. Falling below this level will accelerate the decline; stop-loss is necessary.
If you want to sell, go short: wait for the price to rebound to around $84,200 and stop rising before taking action.
If you want to exit, set a stop-loss: if the price breaks above $84,650, admit mistake and exit.
Where to look for a decline: first watch $82,000; if broken, then watch $81,100.
Don't guess the bottom; before the trend reverses, bottom-fishing = catching the knife.

Currently updating the possible retracement levels for Big Pie Auntie:
There are four possible levels for Big Pie's retracement:
Around 78557 (small probability)
Around 65580 (high probability)
Around 56774 (medium probability)
Between 56774 and 65580 (medium probability)
There are four possible levels for Auntie's retracement:
Around 2149 (medium probability)
Around 1742 (high probability)
Between 2149 and 1742 (medium probability)
Between 1742 and 1386 (small probability)

Currently, the situation is that BTC has completed the first wave of decline and entered a rebound cycle; altcoin market capitalization has been compressed to the extreme but is showing resilience. This is very much like a "digging a pit" move. All conditions are quietly being prepared, only waiting for an opportunity, or perhaps it simply can't fall any further, leading to a natural rebound.
Therefore, for the upcoming period, I think there's no need to be too pessimistic. A rebound is not a reversal; the major trend may still take time, but a Spring Festival market rally is worth looking for