GateUser-521a7c4f

#我的2026第一条帖 Now, the entire network data (January 3rd, Saturday 06:00 CET) has reached a consensus:
The weekend is just "shakeout + accumulation," and once liquidity returns on Sunday night - Monday during the Asian session, there is a 80-85% probability of a direct bullish squeeze pushing above 3800-4000+.
Here are the six most solid pieces of evidence (just refreshed in real-time):
1. The short-seller minefield still has over $2.5 billion untriggered
• 3180-3200: 910 million
• 3250-3300: 730 million
• 3350-3400: 580 million
• 3500-3600: 350 million
Once volume picks up on Monday, these four minefields will explode in a domino effect.
2. Bulls are quietly increasing leverage over the weekend
From Friday to early Saturday, the entire network added 41,000 new long contracts (net long ratio from 48%→62%), while short positions decreased by 28,000 contracts. Funding rate +0.13%, hitting a new high in this cycle, with shorts paying longs 0.13% every 8 hours.
3. Whales only buy in over the weekend
In the past 12 hours, net inflow to exchanges added another 62,000 coins, but 99% are collateralized longs:
• Cumberland increased 20x longs from 18,000 to 31,000 coins
• Wintermute bought 14,000 coins in spot over the past 4 hours
• Withdrawals back to cold wallets only amounted to 4,800 coins (basically zero)
4. Spot ETF continued inflows Friday + early Saturday
US ETH spot ETF inflowed $138 million on Friday, and early this morning another $51 million (led by BlackRock). They are still buying over the weekend; institutions have not stopped.
5. Weekend trading volume structure is super healthy
Each dip (3148→3092, 3120→3110) during pullbacks shows only 28-35% of the volume compared to upward moves. Every shakeout is met with strong buying, with almost no selling pressure.
6. Historical weekend short squeeze performance (past 18 similar weekend shakeout cases)
17 times, the Asian session on Monday opened high + surged with volume, averaging a 14.8% increase, with the highest single-day gain (July 2024) reaching +31%.
Most probable scenario (time + levels):
• Saturday daytime - Sunday daytime: continue chopping in the 3080-3220 range, possibly 2-3 more shakeouts
• Sunday 20:00-22:00 (before US stock market opens): start volume buildup and preheating
• Monday 08:00-12:00 (when liquidity fully returns): break through 3180→3250→3350→3500+, eating up 2.5 billion in shorts in one day, potentially reaching 3800-4000
Summary in one sentence:
The weekend is your last chance to get on board; buy at 3080-3120 freely. Monday is the real day for a bullish squeeze—if you dare to hold, you can eat 30-50% of the move!

#ETH Eat meat, 2889 started to layout, finally waiting for you

Ethereum's recent trend has fallen into an interesting situation. The price is repeatedly testing at relatively high levels, appearing to be in a consolidation phase after a significant rally. At such times, the most frustrating thing is the inability to distinguish whether it's a false breakout or the beginning of a new trend.
From a risk perspective, the situation is indeed a bit delicate. The price is repeatedly confirming support around 2970-2980, while the 3000 level remains a psychological barrier. Any strong breakout, whether upward or downward, could trigger a one-sided move. The signs of activity from the main players at these critical levels are still quite evident.
If you want to participate, a more prudent approach is as follows. One method is to take small long positions at the lower support area of 2970-2980, but only after volume clearly diminishes or a bottoming hammer pattern appears. Another approach is to wait until the price volume increases and stabilizes above 3000, which would confirm that the consolidation has truly ended, making subsequent entries more reliable.
For risk control, placing a stop-loss around 2950 is reasonable. This level has been tested multiple times recently as support; if it breaks, the short-term structure will weaken. The target levels above can be viewed in two steps: first, the 3000-3010 zone; second, if the price successfully breaks through 3000, it can continue towards the previous highs around 3040-3050.
Overall, the most sensible approach now is to trade within the range, paying close attention to changes in open interest and the price behavior at the boundaries, waiting for clearer directional signals to emerge.

Ethereum Short-Term Trend Observation
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum's technical outlook continues the same approach as yesterday—maintaining a neutral stance for now. The current price level does not meet my trading system requirements, and there is not enough certainty for either long or short positions, so I choose to stay on the sidelines for the time being.
The key entry opportunity is here: if Ethereum can pull back and stabilize within the support zone of 2900-2870, then the long entry becomes clearer. Conversely, if it directly pushes upward, I will focus on whether it can effectively break through the 3050 resistance level. Whether the breakout is genuine or false, the market will provide the answer. That will be the next decision point for my actions.

Look at all these dojis on $ETH. Just terrible PA.

The Ethereum ecosystem continues to expand, with the latest data showing a milestone breakthrough. In Q4 2025, the number of smart contracts deployed on the Ethereum network surpassed 8.7 million, reaching a new all-time high. This figure reflects developers' ongoing commitment to the Ethereum ecosystem, with innovations across DeFi protocols, NFT platforms, and various application-layer projects driving the growth of contract deployments across the network. As more developers enter the space, the vitality of Ethereum as the leading smart contract platform continues to be unleashed.

Ethereum just reclaimed the $3,000 mark, marking another significant milestone in the asset's recent price action. This level holds considerable technical importance for traders monitoring ETH's movement, as it opens the door for potential bullish momentum in the broader market. The recapture of this psychological threshold reflects renewed investor interest in the network and its ecosystem.

A whale account has recently been making frequent moves involving Ethereum. This large holder, who accumulated at an average price of $2545, has been aggressively selling over the past half month. In just the past 24 hours, they have offloaded another 10,000.31 ETH, worth approximately $29.35 million, earning a profit of $3.904 million from this move. Looking further back, from mid-December to now, the total on-chain sales have exceeded 40,605.45 ETH, with a total value of up to $118 million. The average selling price was $2922.79, with overall profits reaching $15.34 million. Currently, this whale still has 10,002 ETH remaining on the chain, possibly observing the subsequent trend.

Regarding DOGE's trend, here is an interesting logic: as long as there are people in the market optimistic, as long as you still have the thought of "it will rise" in your mind, the price simply won't move. Conversely, the true upward movement often occurs at the moment when everyone has given up and is completely hopeless.
This stage is definitely not the bottom yet. Why? Because many people, including myself, still expect a big surge someday. This widespread bullish sentiment itself indicates that the chips are not yet fully concentrated.
Therefore, the most prudent approach is to keep waiting. Specifically, it is worth considering deploying only below $0.1, but do not allocate all at once. It should be done in several batches—try small amounts first, and consider heavier positions around $0.05. This way, risks can be controlled, and the holding cost can be optimized.