The Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point rate hike on December 19, pushing the policy interest rate to 0.75%, reaching a nearly 30-year high. However, what surprised the market was that this "hawkish" move not only failed to support the yen but instead led to a weakening of the yen in the foreign exchange market, with the yen against the RMB also coming under pressure.
Does the Bank of Japan's rate hike actually hurt the yen? The interest rate differential paradox emerges
On the surface, Japan's continuous rate hikes should attract arbitrage closing positions, thereby pushing up the yen. But the reality is quite the opposite—the USD/JPY exchange rate has risen, and market demand for the yen has not increased.
Felix Ryan, an analyst at ANZ Bank, pointed out that the fundamental reason for this phenomenon lies in the interest rate differential environment. Although the Bank of Japan has begun a rate hike cycle, the Federal Reserve remains relatively accommodative, and the interest rate advantage between Japan and the US still favors the dollar. In this context, investors, considering interest rate arbitrage, still prefer to hold dollars.