Jamesvanst

Age 2.1 Yıl

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Jamesvanst

2h ago

IBIT vs GLD
I believe IBIT will revert back to GLD and most likely overshoot it.

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Jamesvanst

3h ago

Comparing this cycle to 2022.
Realized price ($54,480) vs 200WMA ($58,611)
Realized price is now firmly below the 200WMA.
At this point in 2022, we would have been in July, where most of the price destruction had already occurred.
My DCA is on aggressively; if we head to either of those metrics, the DCA gets ramped up 3x more aggressively.
See through the war, see through the theatre.

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Jamesvanst

19h ago

Peak oil prices are extremely bearish for gold.
Throw in an all-time high for gold, and it’s a bearish outlook.

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ybaser

To The Moon 🌕

Jamesvanst

03-07 13:18

The most money is made when everyone is panicking on MSM headlines.
That’s when you take the big risks and double down.

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Jamesvanst

03-06 23:04

So private credit is being zeroed out at BlackRock and redemptions are being stopped.
Gold is being offered at a discount to spot in Dubai.
If only there was a fully liquid, sell at spot price, 24/7 alternative.

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Jamesvanst

03-06 15:33

The UK 3-month gilt yield is pricing in a rate hike

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Jamesvanst

03-06 12:45

What’s $1B per day between friends?
The West is bankrupt = Tax increases, energy costs up, more currency debasement.

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Jamesvanst

03-05 23:24

So STRC has an estimated purchase of 3,276 BTC this week (3,150 BTC is the weekly mined supply).
Saylor raised $225M on an 11.5% dividend, with an annual cost of obligation of $26M.
MSTR can run this for 30 months without needing to increase the USD reserve.
GTFOOH 📱

BTC-0,71%

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Jamesvanst

03-05 20:52

Just to put into perspective how low the floating supply is between $70,000 and $80,000
Saylor has only ever bought twice in this range.
Churn here is needed

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Jamesvanst

03-05 18:34

Market should probably start to price in rate hikes if oil stays above $80 with a re-accelerating US economy

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Jamesvanst

03-05 18:29

Market should probably start to price in rate hikes

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Jamesvanst

03-05 14:55

Bitcoin is starting to decouple from software. Uncorrelated asset to anything is the goal.
Software doomers in shambles, already 15% off the lows.

BTC-0,71%

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Jamesvanst

03-05 11:16

Once the short-term quantum solution with BIP360 reaches consensus.
The next debate will be around Bitcoin's fungibility and privacy.
Which just means Bitcoin is reaching the next level of its adoption curve.

BTC-0,71%

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Jamesvanst

03-04 22:07

A bottoming process for BTC is starting to form via IV.
Previous market lows have coincided with spikes in IV, and the broader structure shows IV trending lower over time, meaning each panic event is weaker. (More institutional).
If IV continues to drop while price holds or even sweeps back in the $60ks, it would show demand stepping in without panic.
It would be a typical sign of accumulation and we have already seen signs of s short squeeze with funding still negative.

BTC-0,71%

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Jamesvanst

03-04 17:19

Bitcoin bottomed on the same day as MSTR's Q4 earnings call.
The market was pricing in bankruptcy on $8B in unrealised losses.

BTC-0,71%

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Jamesvanst

03-04 13:50

Remember this chart?
Just to fill in the blank:
60 days after the Yen carry unwind
BTC 21%
Gold: 9%
SPX: 3%
Bitcoin outperforming again on this geopolitical event

BTC-0,71%

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Jamesvanst

03-04 10:28

MSTR's 200-week moving average is at $148.
The stock is set to open at $142.
It tested the 200WMA three times in 2022 over a 5-month period before decisively breaking through it.
I think a similar pattern will play out, could be shorter.

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