As of 2025-12-29 12:00 (UTC+8), ETH current price is approximately $2,940. The daily chart shows a bearish arrangement, with narrow fluctuations on the 4-hour chart. Year-end trading volume is sluggish, making "spikes" easy. The strategy focuses on range-bound high selling and low buying, with risk control as a priority.
1. Quick Overview of Core Technical Aspects
• Daily: Price below the 20/50/100-day moving averages, with a bearish moving average alignment; MACD shows a death cross, momentum is weak; RSI≈44 (neutral to slightly bearish); Bollinger Bands are narrowing, volatility is low.
• 4-hour: Rebound from consolidation, MACD shows a golden cross at low levels but with weak momentum; Bollinger middle band at 2,950, upper band at 2,980 acting as resistance, lower band at 2,920 providing support.
• Volume: About 380 million USDT in 24 hours, insufficient volume to support a trend breakout.
2. Key Price Levels (USD)
• Resistance: 2,980-3,000 (20-day MA + psychological level) → 3,030-3,050 (consolidation zone) → 3,080 (50-day MA).
• Support: 2,920 (4-hour lower band + pivot point) → 2,890 (recent low) → 2,840-2,880 (strong support, tested multiple times).
3. Multi-Period Trading Strategies (with specific levels)
• Short-term (4h/daily)
◦ Long: Stabilization at 2,920 + 4h bullish close + MACD golden cross, enter at 2,925; stop loss at 2,900 (below 4h lower band); take profit 1 at 2,950, take profit 2 at 2,980.
◦ Short: Resistance at 2,980-3,000 + 4h bearish close + MACD death cross, enter at 2,970; stop loss at 3,020 (above 20-day MA); take profit 1 at 2,950, take profit 2 at 2,920.
◦ Risk Control: Single position ≤5%, staggered take profits, avoid heavy overnight positions.
• Swing (daily/3-5 days)
◦ Wait-and-see: Before volume breaks above 3,000, focus on short-term trades, avoid opening large swing positions easily.
◦ Bullish signals: Volume breakout above 3,030 with daily close stable, chase longs; stop loss at 2,980; target 3,080 (50-day MA).
◦ Bearish signals: Drop below 2,900 with volume decline, lightly short; stop loss at 2,930; target 2,890, break below to watch for 2,840.
◦ Risk Control: Single position ≤10%, each stop loss no more than 1.5 times the entry price.
• Trend Following (weekly/mid-long term)
◦ Bullish transition: Weekly close above 3,080 + weekly volume up 30% + daily MACD golden cross, then consider long positions.
◦ Bearish transition: Weekly close below 2,840 + weekly MACD death cross, gradually build short positions targeting 2,700-2,800.
4. Risk Control and Execution Points
1. Position size: Single position ≤10%, total leverage ≤2x. End-of-year liquidity is poor; strictly control risks.
2. Stop loss: Short-term at $20-25, swing trades at $50-80, avoid holding losing positions.
3. Timing: Avoid around 21:00 US Eastern Time (UTC), as traditional market volatility can transmit to crypto markets.
4. Signal Priority: Price breakout/stability > volume > indicators; indicators are only auxiliary.
5. Market Highlights
• Capital: Crypto ETFs continue to outflow, spot funds are weak, limiting rebound potential.
• Sentiment: Year-end fund repatriation and cautious market sentiment, awaiting new catalysts.
