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AxelAdlerJr

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AxelAdlerJr

12-15 09:09

Sharp one-day drops in Bitcoin’s estimated hashrate have been recorded.
2025-12-14: 1,053 → 943 EH/s → Δ = −110.5 EH/s (−10.5% d/d)
2025-12-12: 1,179 → 1,068 EH/s → Δ = −110.5 EH/s (−9.4% d/d)
2025-12-09: 1,098 → 957 EH/s → Δ = −141.0 EH/s (−12.8% d/d)
This is based on network metrics. The causes cited in the press (shutdowns/closure of farms in Xinjiang) require separate external confirmation, these cannot be proven from the metrics alone.

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AxelAdlerJr

12-15 08:24

☕️Morning Brief #60
Short-Term Holder Capitulation: SOPR Signals Local Stress
The Bitcoin market is in a correction phase with a 30% drawdown from the all-time high. Two on-chain indicators: STH SOPR and P/L Block point to loss realization by participants and deteriorating market sentiment.

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AxelAdlerJr

12-14 15:12

Bitcoin Strategy & Market Analysis | W2 Dec 2025
4-year cycles are dead is the myth of the season. They’re not - they just need to be read via market regimes and capital flows, not the calendar.
This issue: an updated Halving Macro Bull/Bear Phase (macro+micro), a reality check on the consolidation scenario, and the key on-chain tells (CDD, LTH Cash Extraction, Net Capital Flow) to answer one question: are we seeing a top-style unload, or a controlled LTH distribution?
Closing with a practical playbook for next week risk, edge, and the conditions that would confirm a regime change.

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AxelAdlerJr

12-13 08:07

People who claim that the 4-year cycles no longer work simply don’t understand how this model actually works.
More details on this framework coming tomorrow on Substack. Link in bio.

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AxelAdlerJr

12-12 09:23

Gold is rising again, trading around $4.3K per ounce. Fresh signs of a cooling labor market have reinforced expectations that the Fed could deliver two rate cuts in 2026.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 came in above expectations and rose to the highest level in more than two months something the market is reading as a shift toward a more dovish rate path (with the usual seasonal caveats).

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AxelAdlerJr

12-12 09:17

Botcoin MVRV Z-Score Bull vs Bear Market: the 30D–365D spread is deeply negative and still deteriorating, so a 30D vs 365D crossover does not look imminent. In this model’s framework, that corresponds to a deep bear phase.
Based on cycle analogs, the most likely window for the next crossover is H2 2026.

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AxelAdlerJr

12-12 08:10

ADLER☕️AM 👇
Bitcoin in Pause Phase After Fed Decision

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AxelAdlerJr

12-12 06:46

Market feels warm today🟢
GMSI +2.25 (LOW VOL) → broad risk-on tone.
Leaders: HSI / Nikkei / DAX. Weakest link: US futures.
PS: This is a sentiment nowcast (cross-market risk tone), not a forward return forecast.

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AxelAdlerJr

12-11 14:13

Tonight we’re dropping SQL of the Week #006 - the final part of the derivatives series.
Just got the 10-year backtest for the Taker Buy/Sell Aggression Index 3,612 days:
Strong Long (z = 1.5…2.5) → +11.1% average 30D return, 67.7% win rate, 1.48 Sharpe.
Not bad for a single z-score factor.

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AxelAdlerJr

12-11 14:01

Tonight we’re dropping SQL of the Week #005 - the final part of the derivatives series.
Just got the 10-year backtest for the Taker Buy/Sell Aggression Index 3,612 days:
Strong Long (z = 1.5…2.5) → +11.1% average 30D return, 67.7% win rate, 1.48 Sharpe.
Not bad for a single z-score factor.

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AxelAdlerJr

12-11 10:20

Bitwise’s base case implies a BTC market cap of around $27 trillion, already larger than the gold market, plus 28.3% annual returns for another 10 years on top of an already hyper-exponential history. Calling that conservative is odd. This is a top-quartile bull case wrapped in an institutional PDF.
For Bitcoin to be worth $1.5M+ in ten years, it effectively has to move into a different asset class category and become a full-fledged global reserve asset. That requires both infrastructure and political will. Corporate cash (corporate treasuries) on its own won’t get us there - they simply don

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AxelAdlerJr

12-11 09:35

The Fed is starting to buy short-term Treasuries at about $40B/month. This is not a new QE, but a technical fine-tuning of liquidity.
For December we only have 3/10 indicators so far:
TIPS 10Y (inv –1.28) → real rates remain tight
HY OAS (inv +1.08) → narrow spreads, benign credit risk backdrop
Fed BS +0.15 → the balance sheet is just slightly above trend
The December regime is only a rough sketch. The real macro snapshot will come after the year-end releases on growth, labor and inflation and will be published in our Substack report.
A framework for making sense of all this.

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AxelAdlerJr

12-11 08:50

Adler☕️AM arrived:
Even After a Heavy Post-ATH Correction, Most of Bitcoin’s Supply Is Still in Profit

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AxelAdlerJr

12-11 06:47

The third consecutive 25 bp rate cut was largely priced in, but Powell’s rhetoric sparked a simultaneous rally in both equities and bonds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.13% (-6 bp), the 2-year to 3.53% (-8 bp). The S&P 500 added 0.7%.
Bitcoin, as always, went its own way and moved lower.
GM.

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AxelAdlerJr

12-10 12:21

Due to the Coinbase migration, the measured STH supply is now around ~5.4M BTC. A non-trivial chunk of that belongs to corporate treasuries and ETFs, while the rest is held by the real-economy investors who are effectively providing ongoing demand on the market.

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AxelAdlerJr

12-10 10:00

The current macro snapshot indicates a stable RISK-ON environment: a normalized score of +2.71 signals a moderately supportive setup, where rates, the dollar, and volatility create a tailwind for risk assets. There are no signs of overheating, but no excessive euphoria either.
If none of this tells you much, start here:

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AxelAdlerJr

12-10 09:21

Morning☕️Brief #57
Bitcoin storms the upper range boundary amid Fed easing expectations

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AxelAdlerJr

12-09 13:35

Price is the last variable in the chain. Fed policy, inflation, the labor market, and liquidity - these are the forces that truly set the direction for risk.
In my new educational material, Macro & Fed Decoder for Humans, I break down how to read the key macro indicators and Fed signals so they directly explain market context: where we are in the cycle, when a tailwind for risk assets emerges and when it's time to reduce exposure.
If you want to stop playing blind - start here. 👇

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AxelAdlerJr

12-09 09:10

Timothee Chalamet and Kylie Jenner have taken the orange pill.

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