Crypto Markets Today: Bitcoin Rebounds, but Downtrend Still Looms
Bitcoin crept back toward $92,000 as markets slowly recovered from last week’s heavy sell-off, but mounting resistance threatens to keep the broader downtrend intact.
What to know:
• Bitcoin bounced to $91,500, but a break above $98,000 and, ideally, consolidation over $100,000 is needed to invalidate the month-long downtrend from October’s $126,000 peak.
• The Fear & Greed Index sits at 20/100 (extreme fear), up from 10 last week, signaling tentative improvement in investor sentiment.
• Thanksgiving trading saw subdued activity; SKY outperformed with an 8.5% gain, while ZEC and TIA slid on continued sell pressure and negative sentiment.
The crypto market slowly chipped away at last week's grueling sell-off this week, with bitcoin BTC$91,534.64 rising to $91,500, the highest since Nov. 20, and the ether ETH$3,037.78 price hitting highs above $3,000 for three straight days.
The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has gained 6.3% so far this week, on track for the biggest one-week gain since Oct. 5.
But it isn't out of the woods. Bitcoin needs to break out of a downward channel dating back to early October with a clear break above $98,000 and, ideally, consolidation above $100,000.
Failure to do so would form another lower high, confirming the negative trend and a potential bearish reversal from early October's $126,000 record high.
The Fear and Greed Index is still flashing 20/100, indicating "extreme fear," although this has increased from 10/100 last week to demonstrate that sentiment is shifting in a positive direction.
The altcoin market remains little changed as investors appear to prefer the relative consistency of the market's biggest asset.
Derivatives positioning
• Volmex's BVIV, the 30-day implied volatility index, continues to drop, reversing the mid-November spike. The decline is consistent with a pull back in Wall Street's VIX index and suggests the panic is ebbing.
• The Deribit-listed options market suggests the same. While BTC and ETH short- and near-dated puts continue to trade pricier than calls, the spread has narrowed in a sign of weakening demand for downside protection.
• Speaking of 24-hour block flows, ether traders have had a bias for risk reversals and strangles. BTC traders chased put spreads.
• On OTC network Paradigm, activity was concentrated in the higher strike out-the-money ether calls
• In the futures market, ZEC's open interest (OI) has dropped by 5%, leading the drop in other major tokens such as BTC, ETH, BNB and SUI.
• Funding rates for ZEC and SOL remain negative, a sign of bias for bearish short positions. Other tokens continue to see marginally positive rates.
• On the CME, BTC futures OI remains at multi-month lows, with ether OI hovering around 2 million ETH, down from the record high of 2.66 million ETH in late October.
Token talk
• The altcoin market was little changed over the past 24 hours as trading volume dried up during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
• Thursday's total trading volume was around $81 billion, considerably less than the daily total between Monday and Wednesday, which ranged from $113 billion to $145 billion, according to Coinalyze.
• Sky (SKY), formerly MKR, outperformed the wider market with an 8.5% move to the upside after forming a clear W-shaped bottom pattern between Nov. 22 and Nov. 26.
• There were also notable daily gains for PUMP and SHIB, which rose by more than 5%, and ENA$0.2891 after it added to its 27% weekly run with a 4.3% increase.
• On the flip side, zcash ZEC$472.28 continued its move to the downside, falling by a further 7.1% over the past 24 hours to compound a 26% loss since Nov. 21.
• There was also a significant slide in the price of TIA$0.6118 after a round of lay offs that, coupled with a lack of onchain activity, drove negative sentiment on social media.
• CoinMarketCap's "altcoin season" indicator remains at a lowly 21/100, suggesting that investors still prefer the relative safety and consistency of bitcoin over the more speculative altcoin market.
$BTC
$ETH
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