$BTC Fairly elementary--- RSI is telling us that this daily trend test is different. This leaves us with three scenarios (ordered from best to worst for bulls): Imperative to note that all three of these scenarios have successively higher bottom wicks, like we have today. 1.
$SPX $SPY Closed these positions on the AM pop, marginal gains all around (8-20%). This afternoon I picked up $SPY 02/20 $707s. The invalidation is extremely clear to me now. Textbook (to this regime) follow-up on a bearish engulfing candle--- now we \*should\* see continuation.
$BTC Yeah fair that +2.1% pump was pretty wild. There's nothing more I want than you low T incels to stop selling every micro pump. Go ahead and de-risk ahead of the weekend, buy it back higher next week. Hoping we can be reminded that the majority of BTC's up moves happen in
Today's action is fun, but it's a textbook altszn day for the two leaders--- semis and crypto... Would rather see these tick up for the sustainability of the move.
For the Canadian Homeowner's--- Don't let the room temp IQ mortgage brokers convince you that variable is a smart move here. Canada's economy is bottomed out and every month you weight the short term (staying variable, capturing a 40 bps spread) over the medium term (locking in a
$NVDA $TSLA You know how they say history often rhymes, but it doesn't repeat? I think I just found a way to refute that--- it absolutely does repeat. 1. In 2024, NVDA distributed for months, looked like the bottom was going to fall out then randomly V-reversed for a 15-20% move
$NVDA $TSLA You know how they say history often rhymes, but it doesn't repeat? I think I just found a way to refute that--- it absolutely does repeat. 1. In 2024, NVDA distributed for months, looked like the bottom was going to fall out then randomly V-reversed for a 15-20% move
$BTC Less of the same. Clocks struck midnight--- beginning a new year and funding took a nose dive. Net-net I feel good about this development; funding approaching negative levels... would rather see that over the highest funding rate since the top several months ago. This was
$SPX $SPY Low vol grind down--- acceleration into daily trend on YE. Picked up a variety of calls: 2DTE, 5DTE, and mid Jan. Pretty tame size, hard to take big option bets into a new year. Nobody wants to start the year in the red... trying to use that to my advantage here. gl
$BRK.B $BRK.A Berkshire topped on Buffet's retirement announcement... Berkshire bottomed on Buffet's retirement... (?) It's a good looking chart heading into a 2026 with lacklustre narratives and over-extended indices...