UpsAndDowns

1.1 Bitcoin/Ethereum continues to fluctuate within a narrow range, patience is needed to wait for the trend to emerge
Yesterday, Bitcoin/Ethereum maintained a short position above 88,800 and 2,980, respectively. After a rally, the market pulled back and declined, with the lowest reaching around 87,100 and 2,956. Bitcoin still has nearly 2,000 points of room to move, while Ethereum shows a narrow range of fluctuation with little movement. Currently, the market continues to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the candlestick pattern is in a consolidation phase. The daily chart shows support aro

Bitcoin touched a high of $90,300 two days ago before beginning to retrace. Yesterday morning, the price was mostly sideways, with both bulls and bears temporarily balanced; during the midday session, the price dipped to test the $86,758 level, then oscillated higher to start a rebound; in the evening, it surged to a high of $89,360, then slightly retreated, reaching around $87,830, before oscillating upward again. As of now, the price is trading around $88,500. From the overall trend, the current oscillating tug-of-war is gradually narrowing, which also indicates that before the end of 2025,

The market rhythm has recently changed. Bitcoin's sharp decline broke through 86,000 in a single candlestick, with 190,000 traders liquidated within 24 hours, and 500 million USD evaporated instantly. It doesn't look like a normal correction; it seems more like the prelude to a leverage position avalanche.
Even more bizarre is the flow of funds. Institutions are aggressively buying gold and silver to hedge risks, causing precious metals to soar; meanwhile, the AI sector is also collapsing, with Nvidia losing nearly a trillion in market value in just two days. What does this phenomenon indicate

Bitcoin is actually useful against the US dollar—it maintains the integrity of the system. By providing genuine competition, it creates pressure that naturally limits excessive inflation and unsustainable deficit spending. The mechanism is simple: when policymakers are aware of alternatives, they cannot ignore the consequences of excessive currency issuance. This is exactly the check and balance that the system needs.

Currently, in the short term, a significant compression phase has occurred between two key liquidity zones.
There is aggressive selling pressure in the market, with prices lacking downward bias, confirming that buy limit orders have absorbed all the outflow orders. This imbalance between the aggressiveness of sellers and the resilience of buyers suggests that the price is accumulating or being maintained within a narrow range to exhaust the sell orders.
The $87,500 region now acts as a decision hub: value is truly being built above it, and as the sell wall above disappears, it will trigger a s

#比特币与黄金战争 Recently, more people have been entering the market. Various voices and different sources of capital are flooding in, and competition is becoming increasingly fierce. This also means that the days of relying solely on luck to reap dividends are beginning to change.
The competition between Bitcoin and gold is essentially a contest for the status of a hedge asset. Traditional market participants are re-evaluating this struggle. While on-chain activity reaches new highs, the market’s complexity is also rising. Honestly, expecting to maintain previous profit logic in this environment is

Bitcoin has not developed along the trajectory of gold, which raises an interesting question: why has gold itself not maintained this correlation? The answer is surprisingly simple and effective. The fact is that gold has consistently shown strong upward potential over a longer time frame. When we look at historical patterns, physical gold and crypto assets like BTC often fluctuate independently in the short-term, but long-term investors know that precious metals remain a reliable store of value. What is the key insight? Don’t overthink market correlation. The fundamentals of gold remain stron

The probability of breaking through the $100,000 mark again is quite limited, at only 8%. However, from a closer target perspective, the possibility of holding above $95,000 is much greater, with a predicted probability of 25%. It is worth noting that the market is also responding to downward risks—the probability of falling below $80,000 has been assessed at 15%. This set of data reflects a certain divergence in the market regarding the future of Bitcoin: on one hand, the voices optimistic about continued pumps are not in the majority, while on the other hand, many participants are preparing

$Bitcoin The network is cooling down.
On-chain data confirms that Bitcoin is still in a bear market phase, with the 30-day moving average below the 365-day moving average. Network activity continues to slow down, indicating a decrease in speculation.
Key Trends (7D SMA):
Trading: Decline → Less speculative actions
Cost: Lower → Less congestion and weaker demand
Active address count: Decrease → Large players exit
This setup is very similar to the bear market of 2018, but today's network is more resilient due to a larger user base.

#BTC资金流动性 $BTC Options Major Event Warning: $23.6 Billion Expiry Will Trigger Market Reshaping
Pay attention to this date—December 26. According to the latest data from the on-chain analytics platform, Bitcoin will face the largest options expiry in history, involving nearly $23.6 billion. This is no small event.
Currently, the price is oscillating within a range, and trading activity is not very high. What does this reflect? Market sentiment is actually quite "cold"—trading volume is declining, institutions are not rushing to build positions, and retail investors are mostly watching from the

There are 11 days left until the end of #美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 . Will Bitcoin break through the $80,000 mark? Currently, the US non-farm employment data is performing quite unexpectedly, which might influence the market's rhythm. How $BTC will move ultimately depends on how the market digests this information in the coming period. There are 11 days left until the end of #美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 . Will Bitcoin break through the $80,000 mark? Currently, the US non-farm employment data is performing quite unexpectedly, which might influence the market's rhythm. How $BTC will move ultimately depends on how the

#数字资产市场洞察 December 18 $BTC Morning Technical Analysis
Yesterday's market first declined then rose, with Bitcoin's lowest point reaching the 85,200 level. During the midnight session, a short position was opened around 87,000, ultimately capturing a profit of 1,189 points.
From a technical perspective, the four-hour K-line is still in the repair stage. The overall pattern favors bears, with the Bollinger Bands expanding downward and the MACD just forming a death cross, indicating continuous bearish momentum. The hourly chart is even more evident—MACD death cross and top divergence signals are p

#数字资产市场洞察 December 18 $BTC Morning Technical Analysis
Yesterday's market first declined then rose, with Bitcoin's lowest point reaching the 85,200 level. During the midnight session, a short position was opened around 87,000, ultimately capturing a profit of 1,189 points.
From a technical perspective, the four-hour K-line is still in the repair stage. The overall pattern favors bears, with the Bollinger Bands expanding downward and the MACD just forming a death cross, indicating continuous bearish momentum. The hourly chart is even more evident—MACD death cross and top divergence signals are p

#比特币在市场消化美联储最新政策立场并预期可能暂停的情况下，保持在92,500美元左右。交易者现在关注即将公布的美国关键经济数据，以寻找新的方向，同时$BTC consolidates its position while macro signals and institutional fund flows remain stable.

#BTCMarketAnalysis
Bitcoin's current market structure indicates a transition phase rather than a clear bullish or imminent rally. The market is digesting over-leverage, emotional trading, and weak hands, gradually forming a balance and preparing for the next significant move.
Recent volatility may confuse many traders, but by focusing on the structure, it becomes evident that Bitcoin has been respecting key demand zones. It's not panic selling during declines but absorbing chips—this suggests selling pressure is weakening while buying interest is quietly accumulating. At this stage, interpret

Bitcoin is currently hovering above the two-year moving average (2YMA). The 2YMA near $82k has always been a key support level. This level is significant — when prices are above such long-term moving averages, it usually indicates a solid foundation. It’s worth watching whether BTC can stay above this level or if a pullback to test it will occur.

Why does Bitcoin often decline around 18:00 Moscow time
Bitcoin almost every day declines at the same time—when the US market opens, trading activity and volume sharply increase.
The decline resembles the operations of large high-frequency traders, who profit by pushing the price down and then buying at a lower price.
Jane Street is frequently mentioned in discussions due to its large holdings in Bitcoin ETFs and resources to execute such operations, although there is no direct evidence of its involvement.
In recent weeks, many have noticed a strange pattern: Bitcoin often begins to de

The most sensitive pool in terms of reaction. Coins stored in major exchange hot wallets can be sold off within minutes, representing the fastest selling pressure. Over the years, this pool has been shrinking, dropping from several million BTC in 2021 to just over 2 million BTC today.
ETF circulating pool: slower liquidity but growing. As of early December 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs hold around 1.31 million BTC. ETF shares are traded and redeemed on the secondary market rather than through direct spot transactions. This friction weakens reflexive selling during intraday volatility but amplifies m

Corporate holder MicroStrategy has once again executed a "textbook" operation, spending $962.7 million to purchase 10,624 bitcoins between December 1 and 7, at an average purchase price of $90,615. This is the company's largest acquisition since July of this year. After this purchase, MicroStrategy's total bitcoin reserves have reached an astonishing 660,624 BTC, with a total cost of $4.935 billion and an average cost of $74,696. Notably, the company recently established a $1.4 billion cash reserve fund aimed at covering dividend and interest payments for the coming years. This has completely

It seems that the panic selling may have come to an end.
Data shows that last month, the amount of BTC held by long-term holders dropped to 14.33 million coins. This is the lowest level since March, coinciding with Bitcoin's pullback to $80,000.
But interestingly—now that BTC is rebounding toward $90,000, the selling pressure appears to be fading. When long-term holders stop selling, it usually means one thing: they believe the bottom has been reached.
Could this be a sign that the market clearing is finally over? The data suggests we may be approaching a turning point.