# 鲍威尔

Many people ask me about expectations for 2026.
Actually, this set of judgments is now just about clarifying the logic further.
Here's the conclusion in one sentence:
Overall, 2026 will be better than 2025, but the pace will be extremely uneven, a typical “front-loaded then rebound” pattern.
1. Q1–Q2 Early: The toughest period (January–April)
The key word during this time is only one:
‍#川普 vs Powell
Core timeline
January: #美联储 almost impossible to move interest rates
March: FOMC meeting + dot plot, very strong political signals
April: #鲍威尔 last full FOMC meeting
May 15: Powell officially st

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The Trump administration is considering 11 candidates for the Federal Reserve chair, at least three of whom are open to cryptocurrencies, including Lorie Logan and Philip Jefferson. Jefferies' David Zervos and BlackRock's Rick Rieder are also strong supporters of the crypto industry, believing that #比特币 will become an important part of asset allocation. The current chair is more cautious about cryptocurrencies.

Morning News: Overview of Important Overnight Developments on December 11
Keywords: #降息 , #鲍威尔 , #Meta
1. Powell: Inflation remains somewhat elevated;

2. Federal Reserve’s 2025 Year-End Outlook: a 25BP rate cut as scheduled;

3. Zuckerberg instructs Meta to abandon open-source artificial intelligence;

4. The median of the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a total of 25 basis points of rate cuts by 2026;

5. US CFTC Chair confirms Bitcoin can serve as collateral in derivatives markets;

6. Federal Reserve's dot plot forecast shows a 25 basis points rate cut in both 2026 and 2027;
7.

🚨【Powell's Latest Remarks: Weakening Employment, Elevated Inflation, "No One Is Talking About Rate Hikes Anymore"】
🚨Just finished watching Powell's press conference this time, and the overall impression is summarized in one sentence: quite a bit of pressure, and the Federal Reserve is also afraid to make reckless moves. He said that the US employment situation is really weakening now: companies are less eager to hire, people are having a harder time finding jobs than before, and the unemployment rate has already reached 4.4%. Although inflation has come down significantly, the core PCE is st

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Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that future monetary policy will be determined through "sequential meetings", and the market's expectations for "more aggressive rate cuts" have been extinguished. U.S. Treasury bonds experienced their first weekly decline since mid-August, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.12%. #美联储 #鲍威尔 #国债

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Powell stated that almost everyone supports the action of lowering interest rates by 25 basis points. #美联储 #鲍威尔 #降息

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Jefferies strategist Mohit pointed out that the focus of the Federal Reserve meeting is on Powell's tone. If he emphasizes inflation risks or economic uncertainty, the market may lower its expectations for interest rate cuts. #美联储 #鲍威尔 #降息

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Powell stated that the Federal Reserve faces dual risks of a weakening labor market and high inflation, emphasizing that there is no risk-free path for monetary policy. #美联储 #鲍威尔 #货币政策 #通胀