The market remains in a downtrend. We especially emphasize that due to the negative macro structure of the altcoin index, altcoins are a very high-risk investment. They may rebound like we recently saw, but in reality, their downside potential remains significant, which is why they should only be considered for short-term trading rather than long-term accumulation. Across all these timeframes, if we consider candle closes, BTC has printed lower lows, strongly indicating a change in the monthly trend. This is not a positive signal for market upside exposure. Additionally, the monthly RSI has also fallen below the 50 region for the first time since Q1 2022. The weekly structure turned bearish a few weeks ago, supporting our macro thesis, but given the breakout in the monthly structure, our macro outlook is further reinforced.

Apart from candle closes, BTC has closed below the monthly 21EMA for the first time since April 2022. The two-week chart also closed below the two-week 50SMA, a situation that previously only occurred on the weekly timeframe. The last time this happened, BTC dropped 37% in a short period, followed by further declines to lower cycle lows throughout the year.

I believe we are on a very similar trajectory this time, which should present good long-term opportunities between 45K and 30K. However, we will definitely evaluate our long-term buy signals locally at the appropriate time. There will certainly be many rebounds along the way. At least at some point, consider a retest of the 85K region on the monthly 21EMA to take profits and re-enter short positions. #加密市场回调